Rana Mitter

Asian Angle | An unpredictable Trump means it’s Xi’s world – if he knows how to take it

Beijing will base its long-term geopolitical strategy depending on the US approach to Asia, but it will need to work on its own approach as well

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, meets with his US counterpart Donald Trump, in Florida. Photo: Xinhua

Rana Mitter

Published: 10:34am, 7 Oct 2017Updated: 10:34am, 7 Oct 2017

In a couple of weeks’ time, Xi Jinping should have re-established himself as China’s paramount leader. He can then turn to welcoming the leader of the other pole in the global geopolitical axis, US President Donald Trump, who will be visiting a series of Asia’s most sensitive regions to smooth feathers ruffled by his administration in recent months.

In November, Trump will give a speech at the Apec conference in Hanoi that has the potential to set the agenda in Asia for a generation to come. Xi will be listening, and more than half-willing his American counterpart to fail – but not completely. Trump’s failure could actually be a “nightmare” for Xi, or so argues an important new book.

What Beijing’s ring roads say about China’s foreign policy

China’s World, by veteran Asia analyst Kerry Brown, would serve as an excellent primer if Trump wants to understand the challenges that face him as he travels to China, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. One of Brown’s central points is that America’s decisions in the region in the very near future will determine the actions of a China that is still hesitant about how far and how fast to increase its influence and temper its actions.

President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confer during a working lunch. News reports allege that Tillerson said the president was a ‘moron’. Photo: Reuters

“The opportunity to be a truly regional dominant power is within China’s grasp,” he argues, but the country is still poised between a new boldness and the traditional timidity that prevents it from having a genuinely global vision.

Unpredictable Trump challenges China’s self-interested foreign outlook

That is why Trump’s Apec speech in Hanoi has the potential to be so important. The president’s visit could be a turning point for US policy in the region, but by definition, that also means it’s a turning point for Beijing as well. If the US is serious about creating a regional alliance to deal with North Korea, reassure South Korea, work to shape the policy direction of Shinzo Abe’s Japan, and deepen new alliances with former enemies such as Vietnam, then Trump needs to work hard and speak clearly.