As a global peace summit in Switzerland nears, Ukraine is stepping up efforts to court Asian attendance. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, an annual gathering of defence and military officials from the region and beyond. In his working visit to the affluent city state, he spoke to new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and President Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
Two days later, he flew to Manila, where he met Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, the keynote speaker at the regional security forum. This is Zelensky’s second trip to Asia after he upstaged last year’s G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, to canvas support from among powerful wealthy countries for his besieged nation.
The Shangri-La Dialogue gave the embattled leader an excellent platform to pitch his country’s cause among Asia’s leaders. Greater Asian participation will raise the appeal of the coming peace assembly, projecting it as inclusive and enjoying broader international backing.
A resident stands near her destroyed house and outbuildings in the village of Rozivka in the Donetsk region on Monday following recent shelling in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Photo: Reuters
Beyond the West, Ukraine struggled to get its message across to other countries, especially in the Global South. While the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is felt globally, especially in the fuel, food and fertiliser markets, other countries are either too preoccupied with pressing domestic issues or simmering hotspots in their backyards to have extra bandwidth to deal with a raging war in a distant land. Three years into the full-scale carnage, the causes that led to and further the conflict and how best to respond to it remain debated. That the Ukraine war may spread elsewhere or analogies that it may provide a template for other flashpoints stoked fears. This coloured and polarised views towards attempts to terminate hostilities.
This said, developing countries are not mere bystanders. In peace meetings last year and this year, delegates from Asia, Africa and Latin America were present. Emerging powers such as Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa did express interest in facilitating and mediating between the combatants, but getting Kyiv and Moscow at the same table remains elusive. Belarus, Turkey and several African countries also tried to broker a deal.
Voting patterns at the United Nations General Assembly on resolutions relating to Ukraine show overwhelming support for the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression and annexation of occupied territories. However, global opinion was divided on suspending Moscow from the UN Human Rights Council. Disinviting Russia remains a sticking point and is a reason why some countries are shying away from the coming Swiss peace conclave.
02:29
China urged to help end Ukraine war by President Volodymyr Zelensky at Shangri-La Dialogue
China urged to help end Ukraine war by President Volodymyr Zelensky at Shangri-La Dialogue
China is not attending the meeting and has flatly denied Zelensky’s accusations of encouraging others to follow suit. Failure to get Beijing’s attendance is a big setback, but not unsurprising given China’s stern position on the war and deepening ties with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing last month. China wants a political settlement that brings the two key protagonists into the same room, which Kyiv shuns for now. As Ukraine and its allies isolate and pile pressure on Russia, Zelensky has argued that China’s posture only prolongs the war.
Ukraine is pulling out all stops to get more members of the international community to join the Swiss talks, claiming that 107 states and international organisations have confirmed participation. Issues to be tackled were narrowed down to nuclear safety, food security, prisoner exchange and the return of deportees. The view is that such security and humanitarian considerations are non-sensitive and non-political, and can garner broader global support.
However, the absence of key world leaders may rain on Kyiv’s parade. President Joe Biden will miss the summit to attend a fundraiser in California as the US election heats up, with Vice-President Kamala Harris to represent him. Apart from Biden, there is expectation that other G7 leaders, who will be meeting in Fasano, Italy, will proceed to Switzerland. As Kyiv invests in the success of the coming conference, it accused Russia, which was not invited, of campaigning against it. In turn, as G7 countries rally around Ukraine, it is not unlikely that other Brics countries, in a show of solidarity, may snub, if not downgrade, participation. Brazil and Saudi Arabia plan to skip the event, while India has yet to decide on its level of participation.
Foreign ministers pose for a group photo during the Asean Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Luang Prabang in January. Asean’s centrality may be tested as Ukraine steps up its diplomatic push for support. Photo: AFP
Southeast Asia and its long-standing bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is a crucial audience Ukraine wants to woo. With more than half a billion people, the strategic and economically vibrant region at the heart of US-China competition will enhance Kyiv’s major diplomatic push.
Asean’s cohesion and centrality, and member states’ declared expression of fidelity for it, may be tested. Vietnam and Laos have traditionally strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War, while countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have a long tradition of non-alignment and neutrality. China is also the region’s largest trade partner and wields significant diplomatic clout, and its stance may influence regional countries.
Ukraine found communion with Singapore, the only country in the region to announce sanctions against Russia. Singapore confirmed its attendance at the Swiss peace summit, with Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and National Development Sim Ann designated as a special envoy for the event. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s visit to Manila boosted the chances of Philippine participation, even as Manila has not confirmed Marcos Jnr’s attendance at the event. Other regional states, however, have been silent so far.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) is greeted by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr during a meeting inside the Malacanang presidential palace in Manila on Monday. Photo: EPA-EFE
Both Marcos Jnr and Zelensky made veiled criticisms of China in their speeches at the Shangri-La Dialogue, and this may provide common ground for the two leaders. Manila criticised Beijing’s excessive and unlawful maritime claims, and its disruptive and dangerous actions against security and economic activities in the Philippines’ western maritime zone.
Similarities between the Philippines and Ukraine fending off bigger and more powerful neighbours have been made. But such parallels may be overly simplistic. Russia and Ukraine are locked in a gruelling years-long active war with huge casualties and damage to military and civilian infrastructure, especially on Ukraine’s side.
On the other hand, while the Philippines and China have had increasingly alarming run-ins, the South China Sea is a multiparty spat, and other littoral states have varying ways of managing differences with Beijing, with arguably better success than too forward-leaning Manila. With its hands already full in the South China Sea and seriously concerned about developments across the Taiwan Strait, Marcos Jnr welcoming Zelensky in Manila was a surprise.
Zelensky’s recent Asia tour elicited mixed reaction. Ukraine’s resolve to fight to defend itself has been recognised. However, the domestic politics and geopolitical considerations of its allies show the limits and risks of heavy reliance on external lifelines. Constrained material support and divided international opinion also stack the odds against the beleaguered country. If Ukraine’s predicament is a case of failed diplomacy, then the Philippines or other Asian countries wishing to avoid a repeat should do more than buy arms or provide foreign military access. They should also up their diplomatic game. Getting into war is always easy, ending it is always difficult.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is President of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.
