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The Philippines
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Opinion | Philippines counts the cost of tough South China Sea stance against Beijing

  • The country is seen as an unreliable destination for Chinese infrastructure investment, while tourist arrivals from the mainland have fallen
  • Philippine politicians and tycoons have expressed concerns about the fallout from mishandling the South China Sea row

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A China Coast Guard vessel manoeuvres near Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua near the Scarborough Shoal on February 8. Photo: PCG via Reuters
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III
The Philippines has become a laboratory in responding to Beijing on the South China Sea row, taking the most risk but showing inconsistency and underwhelming results thus far. Its predicament explains why other Southeast Asian claimant states remain unlikely to follow its lead. The tepid reaction to Manila’s pitch for an Asean claimants-only Code of Conduct is indicative.
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As had happened in the past, lost economic opportunities and further erosion of Manila’s position in the flashpoint, relative to other disputants, may lead to a possible policy reversal in handling the maritime tiff come the 2028 presidential election.

Beijing has the most expansive claims and is most active in disrupting other claimants’ economic and security activities in the South China Sea. However, resistance against China varies depending on the risk threshold, the level of economic interdependence with the region’s largest trade partner, and the importance attached to the maritime spat and broader ties with Beijing. Chinese pressure is also unevenly applied, as other disputants are still able to exploit fisheries and hydrocarbons better and even undertake major reclamation work in contested land features. Pragmatism and realpolitik guide the policy of most Southeast Asian coastal states in dealing with China over the hotspot.

Last year, the Philippines began to expose China’s illicit actions in the disputed waters. It inserted reporters in routine patrols and resupply sorties to document interference by the Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships. The idea is to rally local and international support and impose reputational costs on Beijing.

This approach made strides in rousing public backing for Manila’s defence build-up, a stronger alliance with the United States, and a tougher stance against China. However, it also contributed to polarising domestic politics, affecting people-to-people ties and diminishing Chinese economic interest in the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing remains unmoved, weathering reputational costs and continuing to wield a capacity for escalation in the South China Sea.

The Philippines’ transparency approach has yet to deter China. Quite the opposite, China has upped the pressure on its smaller neighbour. A respite came after the eighth round of the Philippines-China bilateral consultative mechanism held in Shanghai last month. After making vociferous protests, Manila recognised that it would take more than naming and shaming to stop Beijing in the South China Sea, let alone getting it to comply with the landmark 2016 ruling on their dispute by an arbitral tribunal at The Hague that ruled largely in its favour.

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Growing maritime challenges have led the Philippines to embark on a major arms upgrade, including plans to acquire submarines for the first time. Manila also ramped up military drills and joint sails with the US and allies, and expanded the Americans’ strategic footprint in the country. It is negotiating a reciprocal access agreement with Japan and a visiting forces pact with France. The transparency drive gave a boost to long overdue military modernisation and revitalised alliance with the US.

Washington also met its objectives for integrated deterrence, with Manila pushing to align with broader American designs in the region. The US was given access to three sites in northern Luzon away from the South China Sea but closer to Taiwan, a hot-button issue between Beijing and Washington. The US also plans to develop a port in Batanes, the northernmost province in the Philippines, less than 200km from Taiwan.
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