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Alexander Gillespie

Tax cuts, crime, the cost of living, potholes and co-governance - these and various other issues are now familiar to most New Zealand voters. But there has been one major election area missing the serious debate it needs: foreign policy.
Whichever parties form the next government, and whoever becomes prime minister, they will also be charged with negotiating New Zealand’s place in a dynamic and changing world.
Military and security alliances, trade, climate change and foreign aid are all presenting significant challenges.
So here are some of the questions any incoming administration should be able to answer to the satisfaction of voters ahead of the election on October 14.
How will New Zealand’s economic slump play out for jobs — and the election?
Defence and security
Having recently deepened military relationships with Australia and Japan, New Zealand needs to be clear about whether it will join “pillar two” of the Aukus security pact between the United States, Britain and Australia.
Directly related to the Aukus question are the hard military implications: who or what would New Zealand fight for? Were the US and mainland China to square off over Taiwan, with Australia (New Zealand’s only formal ally) drawn into such a conflict, would New Zealand send military help?
Less speculatively, will New Zealand continue to send naval assets to support exercises aimed at defending freedom of the seas, given the very recent history of Chinese military confrontation in the disputed South China Sea?
The Pacific is also in a state of geopolitical flux. New Zealand has upgraded its military relationship with Fiji, and the US has secured “unimpeded access” to strategic ports and airports in Papua New Guinea. But how does New Zealand respond to the “comprehensive partnership” just announced between China and East Timor covering military exchanges, training and exercises?

Ukraine and defence budgets
The war in Ukraine will also demand attention. While New Zealand is not directly involved, it provides military training, financial, legal and humanitarian help. Does this continue or ramp up, or does the level of aid depend on what New Zealand’s allies do?
Further to that, what is New Zealand’s official position on what peace would look like for Ukraine? Would New Zealand support a peace deal that involved territory trade-offs or did not include the prosecution of war crimes?
Related to that is the uncertainty over US commitment to supporting Ukraine, given some Republican resistance. New Zealand’s next government will face potentially very unpredictable outcomes from the US presidential election in November 2024. What happens if Donald Trump returns to power?
Many of New Zealand’s key allies (including Nato countries) are spending or aiming to spend 2 per cent of GDP (or more) on their militaries. New Zealand currently only spends about 1.5 per cent of GDP. Ideally, voters would know whether that will increase, by how much, and by when.
More specifically, would any extra spending see the New Zealand Defence Force adopt militarised artificial intelligence technologies?
Supporting Ukraine can help New Zealand counter Chinese clout in Indo-Pacific
Trade and sanctions
An open, predictable and rules-based global economy can no longer be taken for granted. Regional trade integration has been disrupted, with a shift towards unilateral trade policies and agreements.
What is New Zealand’s response, and will local exporters be encouraged and helped to diversify their markets?
Beyond the simple mantras of negotiating new trade agreements with India or the US, how will that diversification and continued growth be achieved?
Will New Zealand support mainland China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – or would it back Taiwan’s?
Will New Zealand continue to support the use of sanctions outside the UN system (such as those imposed on Russia), and will it consider extending sanctions to countries for grievous human rights abuses (such as those imposed on Iran)?

Climate and foreign aid
Climate change presents extreme challenges domestically and internationally. New Zealand’s overall performance is rated “highly insufficient” by the independent Climate Action Tracker. So what will the next government do at a global level?
Where does New Zealand stand on mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest multilateral fund dedicated to helping developing countries address the climate crisis, and will it increase pledged funding for it?
And will New Zealand continue to believe in and support the Global Methane Pledge, a joint US-European Union initiative to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030?
The UN sets a target for all developed nations to give 0.7 per cent of their gross national income as aid to developing countries, but New Zealand only manages to give 0.23 per cent. Will the next government seek to increase or even decrease this? And would it support the creation of a regional development bank or cooperative aid projects with China?
Finally, New Zealand will need to confirm if it will keep taking 1,500 refugees annually.
These are not easy questions. But the New Zealand public should know the answers before they vote – and before the next government positions the country in an increasingly turbulent global order.
Alexander Gillespie is a professor of law at the University of Waikato in New Zealand. This article was first published by The Conversation.



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New Zealand

New Zealand election: parties should outline foreign policy goals ranging from China, Aukus to trade

A New Zealander votes in a previous election at an overseas polling station in Sydney. Photo: Reuters 

New Zealand PM and Labour Party Leader Chris Hipkins at the launch of his party’s election campaign in Auckland on September 2. Photo: Reuters

New Zealand National Party leader Christopher Luxon casts his ballot in Auckland on Monday during early voting for the general election. Photo: AP

How will New Zealand’s economic slump play out for jobs – and October’s general election?

Auckland, New Zealand. The nation’s economy is predicted to struggle further in the coming months. Photo: Bloomberg

Chris Hipkins was sworn in as New Zealand’s prime minister in January, after his predecessor Jacinda Ardern stepped down. Photo: dpa

New Zealand opposition leader Christoper Luxon (second from left) talks with people in Auckland’s central business district last month. Recent polls show his National Party ahead of Hipkins’ Labour. Photo: New Zealand Herald via AP

A pedestrian walks past a food truck in Wellington last month. New Zealand’s government is tightening its belt as a domestic recession and concerns about China’s faltering economy erode tax revenue and strain its budget. Photo: Bloomberg

Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is best way for New Zealand to counter Chinese clout in Indo-Pacific

Ukrainian tanks train in the Chernigiv region on September 8 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo: AFP

A combine harvests wheat at a field near Kivshovata village, Kyiv region, in July. For many Southeast Asian states, the war has led to soaring prices for food and energy. Photo: AFP

(From left) Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping in 2019. File photo: Sputnik/Kremlin via Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and New Zealand’s Prime Minister Chris Hipkins shake hands at the Nato Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania in July. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service via Reuters

New Zealand faces tough times in era of global ‘strategic competition’ amid talk of a new ‘Cold War’

A cyclist rides past Auckland’s skyline. The country’s defence policy and strategy statement said “New Zealand is facing a more challenging strategic environment than it has in decades”. Photo: Bloomberg

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins delivers a keynote speech at the 9th Annual China Business Summit in Auckland on July 17. Photo: Xinhua

Late afternoon traffic in Auckland. Photo: Shutterstock

New Zealand’s foreign policy dilemma: remain independent or join ‘pillar 2’ of Aukus

New Zealand Defense Minister Andrew Little unveils the country’s plans to boost its defense capabilities as tensions rise in the Pacific, due in part to a military buildup by China. Photo: AP

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, second right, walks during a meeting with US President Joe Biden, second left, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a naval base in San Diego on March 13 as part of an Aukus meeting. Photo: Pool via AP

The Aukus trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US is vying with China to expand influence with Asia-Pacific nations. Photo: Pool via AP

This Week in Asia

Opinion

New Zealand’s parties campaigning in the October 14 general election have so far sidestepped foreign policy issues
The parties should inform voters of their stance on these issues amid a turbulent global order


New Zealand’s parties campaigning in the general election should inform voters about their foreign policy positions ranging from China to trade.


China-New Zealand relations

Asia elections

Pacific nations

Aukus alliance

Ukraine war

Trade

Papua New Guinea

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Opinion | New Zealand election: parties should outline foreign policy goals ranging from China, Aukus to trade

New Zealand’s parties campaigning in the October 14 general election have so far sidestepped foreign policy issues The parties should inform voters of their stance on these issues amid a turbulent global order

Defence and security

New Zealand’s parties campaigning in the October 14 general election have so far sidestepped foreign policy issues

The parties should inform voters of their stance on these issues amid a turbulent global order