Robert Patman

Opinion | New Zealand’s foreign policy dilemma: remain independent or join ‘pillar 2’ of Aukus

Involvement in Aukus pillar 2 – the sharing of information in defence technologies – does little to advance New Zealand’s independent foreign policy interest

New Zealand shares a great deal politically with Aukus members, but not its framing of China as the only major threat to the liberal order

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New Zealand Defense Minister Andrew Little unveils the country’s plans to boost its defense capabilities as tensions rise in the Pacific, due in part to a military buildup by China. Photo: AP

Robert Patman

Published: 4:00am, 24 Aug 2023Updated: 5:17am, 24 Aug 2023

Strategy, as the great military thinker Carl von Clausewitz pointed out, is the process of effectively applying means to achieve clearly defined ends. But good strategy in global politics is easier said than done.

The post-Cold War era is full of examples of poor strategy, be it the US invasion of Iraq, China’s claim to 90 per cent of the South China Sea, or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

So does the formation of Aukus – the security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia in 2021 – offer the prospect of a coherent strategy in the Indo-Pacific region?

More to the point, would New Zealand’s involvement in the alliance advance its national interests? It’s an urgent matter the next government must consider carefully before making a decision.

Aukus consists of two key pillars. The first involves Australia acquiring eight to 10 nuclear-powered submarines from the US and Britain over the next three decades, at an estimated cost of between A$268 billion and A$368 billion (US$172-US$237 billion).