Craig Mark

Opinion | Japan’s next prime minister? Vaccine tsar Taro Kono is in with a shot as Suga steps down

A battered health system, a tepid economy, a demoralised population and plummeting support. There’s no Suga-coating the last days in office of Japan’s outgoing prime minister

Now the race is on for his successor. Among the possibilities are ex-foreign minister Kishida and would-be first female PM Sanae Takaichi. But media-savvy Kono could be just the boost the LDP needs

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Taro Kono, left, with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Suga has said he will not stand for re-election as LDP leader. Photo: Kyodo

Craig Mark

Published: 9:36pm, 3 Sep 2021Updated: 9:59pm, 3 Sep 2021

The surprise decision by Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga not to recontest the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has thrown this month’s party leadership election wide open, with implications for the national lower house election due to follow soon after.

Suga made the sudden announcement this Friday amid wrangling among the various LDP factions, as the worsening unpopularity of his government ultimately undid his premiership.

Although last month’s spectator-free Tokyo Olympics were relatively successful, the rate of Delta-variant Covid-19 infections has continued to reach record levels in Japan. This has been despite an extended state of emergency, which has left the population demoralised by the intensifying pressure on the public health system, and the ongoing tepid economy.

After winning the LDP leadership vote in August 2020 to replace Shinzo Abe, defeating minor faction leaders Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba, Suga’s popularity soon steadily declined. His government failed to gain effective control over the coronavirus pandemic, and he was also buffeted by a series of political scandals. His cabinet approval ratings sunk below 30 per cent, and the LDP continued to lose local elections and by-elections during Suga’s tenure.

The loss of the mayoral election for Yokohama City on August 22, in Suga’s own constituency, confirmed fears among party bosses that the LDP faces dropping from its current comfortable two-thirds majority in the lower house of the Diet, to a potential loss of its simple majority. As a general election is due after the current four-year term of the House of Representatives expires on October 21, this would leave the LDP reliant on its coalition partner Komeito to form government.

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Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will not seek re-election as party leader

It had been widely expected that 72-year-old Suga would nevertheless contest the leadership election scheduled for September 29, when the LDP’s 383 Diet members and an equal number of delegates from LDP branches will vote for the party president, requiring a simple majority of 766 votes.