Opinion | Will the next Israel-Hamas conflict be remote-controlled?
- In the recent 11-day conflict, Hamas launched several drones together with 4,000 rockets aimed at Israel
- The playbook for future conflict will almost certainly include the launch of suicide drones aimed at swarming Israel’s anti-missile defence system
A Hamas propaganda video which made the rounds during its recent conflict with Israel showed a drone getting ready for action. The video is a harbinger of what the next armed clash between the two sides will bring.
After the most recent round, which ended on May 21 with a ceasefire after 11 days of warfare that killed more than 200 Palestinians and a dozen Israelis, including children, both sides claimed tactical victory. Buried among the rubble in Gaza were the remnants of a two-state solution to the intractable conflict.
The proliferation of combat Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and loitering munitions, better known as suicide drones, is not news in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s failure to intercept Houthi suicide drones, which have been wreaking havoc on its oilfields – with the most recent strikes occurring in April – is a case in point.
The Houthis use drones based on Iranian models. General Frank McKenzie, the head of the US military’s Central Command, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East, has raised the alarm over this battlefield development. Testifying before the House Armed Services Committee on April 20, he said that “for the first time since the Korean war, we are operating without complete air superiority”.
While the most advanced and expensive armed UAVs originate in the US and Israel, newcomers like Turkey are flooding the zone with cheaper versions that have already been battle-tested in conflicts from Libya to the Caucasus.
In the fight between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish combat drones proved to be a game-changer. The craft were, in essence, a relatively cheap off-the-shelf air force for Baku, and were used to great advantage against Armenian armour and other targets.
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Hamas has been learning the lessons. During the recent conflict, several drones were launched along with the 4,000 rockets aimed at Israel. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) were prepared – Israel is the inventor of modern drone warfare doctrine, after all – and fighter jets and loitering UAVs of its own were in the air, prepared to hit Hamas operators pre-take-off.
