Marc Lanteigne

Opinion | The Arctic is not the South China Sea

Alluding to the South China Sea has become a shorthand of sorts for those attempting to demonstrate a China threat in the Arctic

But China is not an Arctic state and hasn’t challenged the sovereignty of any Arctic government. Pretending otherwise only distracts from bigger problems related to climate change

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China’s polar icebreaker Xuelong 2, or Snow Dragon 2. Photo: Xinhua

Marc Lanteigne

Published: 5:00am, 25 May 2021Updated: 5:27am, 25 May 2021

As climate change continues to affect the Arctic, and the region begins to be more widely seen as one of emerging economic importance, the perception of Arctic waters as a nascent arena for great power rivalry has gained much traction in recent years.

China is very much a factor in these debates, as the country has sought to further develop its own political, scientific and economic interests in the far north. While Beijing aspires to be accepted as an Arctic stakeholder and a participant in emerging regional dialogues, the decline of Sino-American relations now presents a significant challenge to these ambitions.

As China continues to seek an enhanced presence in the far north, it has become more commonplace within commentaries and studies of Chinese Arctic policies to paint the country’s interests there as assertive or revisionist.

Very often these critiques have sought to define, and at times conflate, China’s strategic capabilities in the Arctic by drawing a direct comparison with Beijing’s policies in the South China Sea, often without offering any connecting material to support that link.

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Instead, “South China Sea” has become a sloppy shorthand of sorts for those attempting to demonstrate a China threat in the Arctic. This despite the fact from a variety of angles, including political, legal, geographic and historical, the two waterways are drastically different from the viewpoint of Chinese interests.

It is past time for the “Arctic equals South China Sea” canard to be nudged into retirement for two reasons. First, the comparison rests on a shaky “if p then q”-type argument, or more specifically the allegation that “China is misbehaving in the South China Sea, ergo it must be misbehaving in the Arctic”.