Opinion | Why the Hong Kong-Singapore travel bubble is key in adapting to a ‘new normal’

Meanwhile, there is a growing realisation worldwide that even with the roll-out of highly effective vaccines against Covid-19, we may never reach the level of herd immunity required to eliminate the disease. This means that Covid-19 would become endemic, even as large-scale vaccinations combined with personal hygiene and some social distancing measures ensure that the disease burden is significantly reduced.

Aviation hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore have to examine ways to open themselves to travel in ways that manage the risks of cross-border transmissions and assuage people who may be fearful or risk-averse.

Even if a high percentage of a population gets vaccinated – say 70 per cent – the coronavirus could still circulate in the population, although with much less illness occurring and health care systems able to cope with the caseloads.

Second, even if current vaccines are effective against new variants of Covid-19, the fact that these variants are more transmissible means that it would be more costly and onerous to achieve a given level of viral suppression. With increasing transmissibility, “zero infections” as a policy goal becomes less realistic.

The third reason for the persistence of Covid-19 is vaccine scepticism. Ironically in both Hong Kong and Singapore, the fact that the Covid-19 pandemic has been kept under control has lessened the sense of urgency to get vaccinated as soon as possible. This is not irrational: economists have long known that vaccination is a collective action problem: what is individually rational may not be collectively so.

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Travel bubbles hit a snag amid global Covid-19 peak, says Hong Kong commerce minister Edward Yau

Travel bubbles hit a snag amid global Covid-19 peak, says Hong Kong commerce minister Edward Yau