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Myanmar
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Kishore Mahbubani
Kishore Mahbubani

Opinion | Myanmar coup could jump-start US-China cooperation, through quiet diplomacy

  • The West’s condemnation of Aung San Suu Kyi gave Myanmar’s generals courage to act against her, but good can come out of the coup
  • An isolated Myanmar and divided Asean are not good for Beijing. The wisest thing Joe Biden can do is show that American diplomacy can once again succeed in Asia

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Protesters stand in front of a huge banner of detained Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The military coup could quietly restart discreet geopolitical cooperation between Beijing and the new Biden administration in Washington. Photo: AFP
Kishore Mahbubani

The sociologist Max Weber once famously said, “it is not true that good can follow only from good and evil only from evil, but that often the opposite is true. Anyone who fails to see this is, indeed, a political infant”.

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Myanmar proves the sagacity of his statement. The “evil” of the coup was facilitated by the “good deeds” of Western leaders, whose isolation and rejection of Aung San Suu Kyi gave the generals courage to launch a coup against her. Yet, good may also come out of the evil of the coup.

For a start, it could quietly jump-start discreet geopolitical cooperation between Beijing and the new Biden administration in Washington. Inconceivable? Why should China abandon an isolated military regime in Myanmar that would be safely dependent on it?

The simple answer is that an isolated Myanmar, which in turn divides Asean, is not a geopolitical asset for China. A divided Asean provides opportunities for Beijing’s adversaries. And since Beijing thinks long-term, not short-term, it is acutely aware that keeping Asean together is in its interests. Hence, China will quietly support Asean’s efforts to reverse the coup in Myanmar.

Yes, there will be trade-offs. In my two years as the Singapore ambassador to the UN Security Council (UNSC), I saw almost daily trade-offs among the five permanent members, including the US and China. After invading Iraq, George W. Bush needed China’s help to lift UNSC sanctions on the country. Beijing obliged. Subsequently, the Bush administration squeezed the independence-inclined Chen Shui Bian administration in Taiwan.

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