Opinion | Will Trump or Biden be better for Asean countries amid US-China stand-off?
- Under Biden, US foreign policy will not ‘snap back’ to that of the Obama era, and its hardline strategy towards China will remain largely unchanged
- Whichever candidate wins, Asean countries will find themselves at the centre of an intensifying Sino-US rivalry, especially over the South China Sea
If Trump is re-elected for a second term he is likely to pursue many of the same policies, domestically and internationally. The Republican National Committee opted not to publish a 2020 party platform, instead deciding to persist with the 2016 party platform. A second term is also likely to be characterised by the same rancour and unpredictability that marked his first term in office.
Unless Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins an overwhelming majority of the states, the popular vote and the electoral college, Trump could legally challenge the result, leading to political uncertainty and possibly violent protests for several months. Such a scenario would likely be more destabilising than the aftermath of the 2000 contested presidential election.
If Biden does take office in January 2021, his administration is likely to be less unpredictable and more consistent than his predecessor, with fewer high-level resignations and fewer posts left unfilled. Under Biden, US foreign policy will not “snap back” to that of the Obama era, though his administration may place a greater emphasis on strengthening America’s relations with allies and international organisations, which have frayed under Trump. America’s more hardline strategy towards China will remain largely unchanged under Biden. The atmospherics of Sino-US relations could improve slightly and the tactics used by Washington to pursue this rivalry may also change.
