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Opinion | Nagorno-Karabakh conflict offers insight into the new art of war

  • Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan represents a possible third front involving Russian and Turkish proxies, after Syria and Libya
  • It also highlights several disturbing trends, including the increased use of mercenaries and the role of social media in heightened tensions

Reading Time:3 minutes
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A police officer stands in front of a residential building that was supposedly damaged by shelling in Nagorno-Karabakh’s main city of Stepanakert. Photo: AFP
As in the 1990s, border skirmishes in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be escalating into full-scale conflict.
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The mountainous enclave is part of Azerbaijan but is run by its mostly ethnic Armenian inhabitants. It is not recognised internationally as independent. Following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, war in Nagorno-Karabakh led to the deaths of 30,000 people.

03:23

Azerbaijan and Armenia accuse each other of targeting cities outside conflict zones

Azerbaijan and Armenia accuse each other of targeting cities outside conflict zones

In 2020, there is an important difference. The fighting that broke out over the past week involves the use of foreign armed drones and, allegedly, mercenaries. This increases the potential for the conflict to devolve into a grinding battle as the supply of men and materiel from mercenaries and weapons from other nations will lower the cost to the main combatants.

Turkey has already declared its full support for Azerbaijan, while Armenia is part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). This means the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh represents a possible third indirect front involving Russian and Turkish proxies, after Syria and Libya.
Armenia’s Ministry of Defence has claimed the Azeri military is escalating operations, including the deployment of Turkish combat air support and Syrian mercenaries. Moscow has signalled that it prefers to mediate the conflict instead of joining it but any escalation risks drawing in more regional powers such as Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

02:31

Deadly clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan reignite over Nagorno-Karabakh

Deadly clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan reignite over Nagorno-Karabakh

Adding fuel to the fire, the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged Twitter barrages that rival their artillery duels in intensity.

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