Leslie Fong

Opinion | Could US, China rivalry lead to war? History shows it might

A look at conflicts between reigning and rising powers over the past 500 years shows a war may be inevitable – probably a limited one in the South China Sea

The Honolulu talks show the US will not allow Beijing to usurp its power, and China’s lead in 5G may explain why the Trump administration is hell-bent on destroying Huawei

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US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are pictured together in 2017. The rift between the two countries is deep-seated and structural, and will not go away, even if Trump is not re-elected in November. Photo: AFP

Leslie Fong

Published: 9:00pm, 23 Jun 2020Updated: 9:32am, 24 Jun 2020

Are China and the United States sliding farther down the slippery slope towards war, albeit a limited one, probably in the South China Sea?

The sharp deterioration of Sino-American relations in recent months would suggest that they are – unless halted by the exercise of exceptional political wisdom and statesmanship on both sides. The latest round of high-level talks in Honolulu offered little hope for optimism. It was described as “constructive”, which, in diplomatic-speak, means both sides stuck to their guns.

This is hardly surprising as strategic considerations each considers imperative are driving the two nations towards a head-on collision. Where once the hope was that it was just the grandstanding Trump administration that wanted to pick a fight with China for short-term electoral gains, it has now become increasingly clear that the rift is deep-seated and structural.

It will not go away even if Donald Trump does after the November presidential election. The American antipathy towards China is deep and bipartisan. What China holds as fundamental to its security and salvation, and thus non-negotiable, will always be regarded by the US as a direct challenge by a rising power to its dominance of the global order. And so the stage is set for push and push-back.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt is seen in Guam in early June, as it resumes military operations in the Pacific region. Photo: AP

Those familiar with the book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, by Harvard scholar Graham Allison, will recognise that this is precisely its theme. Too abstract? Then read the Crowe Memorandum, which should point to what exactly the US finds unacceptable about China.