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Rupakjyoti Borah

Japan’s Ministry of Defence has requested a record 5.32 trillion yen (US$50.5 billion) for the next financial year.
If approved, this will be the eighth straight year-on-year increase in Tokyo’s defence spending and represents a 1.2 per cent increase over the previous year. So, what’s behind the increase?
To begin with, there is the North Korea factor. Of late, North Korea has been testing a series of missiles at regular intervals. While these are short- and medium-range missiles and have not landed in Japan’s EEZ (exclusive economic zone), the worry for Japan is that these tests have not elicited much of a response from Washington.
That could be both good and bad news. It could mean that Washington does not see these tests by Pyongyang as reason for alarm. But that lack of alarm on America’s behalf may be because while it sees long-range missiles capable of hitting its bases in Guam as a threat, it’s less worried about short-range missiles that can’t reach its territory.
What’s the target of Trump’s Asia strategy?
After the talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, in Singapore in June 2018, long-range missile tests by Pyongyang stopped. Trump also seems to have been bowled over by the North Korean strongman, whom he last met at the DMZ (demilitarised zone) between North and South Korea.
Second, is the China factor. Beijing has claims over the Japanese-held Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyus in China) and in the past Chinese vessels and aircraft have intruded into Japanese territory. In addition, China has been steadfastly behind North Korea, though under pressure from the United States and other nations, it has had to obey UN sanctions on Pyongyang. While Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited China last October, the territorial issue is a major issue of divergence in China-Japan relations.

A third factor is the growing bonhomie between China and Russia. Although Abe has tried his best and been quite successful in building a rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, this has not translated into much forward movement at the ground level, with the two countries being unable to resolve their own long-festering territorial dispute over the Kuril islands.
Fourth, Abe has been under pressure from the Trump administration on the issue of trade and hence he is likely to try to please the Trump administration by placing orders for more US-made weaponry. Trump has also been cajoling the Abe administration to take more responsibility for its own defences and this is not lost on Tokyo. In the run-up to his election in the US, Trump also suggested Japan and South Korea could have their own nuclear weapons.




Fifth, relations with South Korea have been in free fall. While both Japan and South Korea are US allies, the two countries have fallen out of late over a host of issues and have imposed tit-for-tat sanctions on each other. Japan has imposed export restrictions on three important industrial materials used by South Korean companies to make semiconductors and display screens and has also removed South Korea from a list of countries which face minimum restrictions on items exported from Japan.
Explained: what’s driving Japan’s escalating feud with South Korea?
Tokyo also wants to strengthen its ballistic missile defences with a new generation of interceptor missiles. It has plans to deploy the Aegis Ashore land-based missile defence batteries in the Akita and Yamagichi prefectures to counter the threat from Pyongyang. Tokyo also aims to refit its helicopter destroyers the JS Izumo and the JS Kaga to allow for aircraft like the F-35B Short Take off and Vertical Landing to operate from them. These two helicopter carriers have already been sent on extensive long-term deployments.

Japan is also keen to invest in future technology. The defence ministry has asked for ¥23.8 billion to increase staff in the cyberdefence unit and to take countermeasures against cyberattacks. This has particular significance given Tokyo will host the Summer Olympics next year.
All these are in keeping with Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision”, under which Tokyo has been trying to gain a bigger foothold in the region and beyond. Abe’s government is most likely to approve the budget request. What is clear is that Japan under Abe is trying to play an increasingly influential role in what is now known as the Indo-Pacific. Given Trump’s maverick nature, Abe understands well that his “Golf Buddy” may not always be around to bail Japan out. After all, Trump has always put “America First”.
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo


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China-Japan relations

Is China the target of Japan’s record-busting defence budget?

Japan’s defence spending is expected to set a record next year as the country buys expensive American weapons amid threats from China and North Korea. Among the biggest purchases are six F-35B stealth fighters at 14 billion yen each for deployment in 2024. Photo: AP

A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force ensign is flown on the deck of the destroyer Suzutsuki as it arrived at China's Qingdao port on April 21, 2019, to attend a fleet review being conducted by the Chinese navy on April 23 to mark the 70th anniversary of its foundation. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

North Korea test fires a new weapon, in this undated photo released on August 11, 2019 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THIS IMAGE. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. SOUTH KOREA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SOUTH KOREA. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Chinese missiles likely to cripple Asia-based US forces in event of conflict: report

A formation of officers and soldiers from the army, air force, navy and rocket force of the Chinese PLA at a military parade. Photo: Xinhua

China's ballistic missile range. Graphic: SCMP

In this Sept. 3, 2015 photo, military vehicles carry DF-16 short-range ballistic missiles past Tiananmen Gate during a military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing. A highly accurate Chinese ballistic missile capable of threatening U.S. and Japanese bases in Asia has made its latest appearance at recent Rocket Force drills. The medium-range DF-16 featured in a video posted on the Defense Ministry's website showing the missiles aboard their 10-wheeled mobile launch vehicles being deployed in deep forest during exercises over the just-concluded Lunar New Year holiday. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

A nuclear-powered Type 094A Jin-class ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese PLA Navy. Photo: Reuters

Military bases to ballistic missiles, what’s the target of Trump’s Asia strategy?

Illustration by Yip Pak To

Photo taken in April 2019 shows a gate at the Andersen Air Force Base in the U.S. territory of Guam. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

epa07656403 (FILE) - US Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan (C) delivers remarks during a meeting with Greek Minister of Defense Evangelos Apostolakis at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, USA, 07 June 2019 (Reissued 18 June 2019. US President Donald J. Trump said on 18 June 2019 that Acting secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan has decided not to go forward with his confirmation process as Defense Secretary to devote more time to his family. Trump also announced that Mark Esper, Army Secretary, will take over the acting Defense secretary position. EPA-EFE/SHAWN THEW

LON99:BRITAIN-ISLANDERS:LONDON,18JUL00 - UNDATED FILE PHOTO - File photo of Diego Garcia,largest island in the Chagos archipelago and site of a major United States military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean leased from Britain in 1966. Exiled inhabitants of Diego Garcia began a challenge July 17 to a British government decision to kick them off the remote island 30 years ago to make way for the U.S. base. Thousands of islanders from the 65-island Chagos archipelago, many of them born in exile in Mauritius, want Britain to return them to their homeland.clh/HO/U.S. Navy REUTERS

This May 15, 2017 picture shows a US Air Force F-15 fighter aircraft taxiing at Kadena air force base in Okinawa. A US F-15 jet crashed off the southern coast of Japan on June 11, 2018 but the pilot ejected and was rescued by Japanese forces, Tokyo's defence minister said. / AFP PHOTO / JIJI PRESS / - / Japan OUT

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper inspects an honor guard ahead of a meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya at the Ministry of Defense in Tokyo, Japan August 7, 2019. Eugene Hoshiko/Pool via Reuters

KYKTKT Seascape of Cam Ranh Bay (Khanh Hoa) in South Coast of Vietnam. [19MAY2019 FEATURES POST MAGAZINE] CREDIT: Alamy

A Japan Air Self-Defense Force's F-35A stealth fighter jet, which Kyodo says is the same plane that crashed during an exercise on April 9, 2019, is seen at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Komaki Minami factory in Toyoyama, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, in this photo taken by Kyodo June 2017. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. JAPAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN JAPAN. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY.

Illustration: Yip Pak To

021110-N-0000X-002 China Lake, Calif. (Nov. 10, 2002) -- A Tactical "Tomahawk" Block IV cruise missile, conducts a controlled flight test over the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) western test range complex in southern California. During the second such test flight, the missile successfully completed a vertical underwater launch, flew a fully guided 780-mile course, and impacted a designated target structure as planned. The Tactical Tomahawk, the next generation of Tomahawk cruise missile, adds the capability to reprogram the missile while in-flight to strike any of 15 preprogrammed alternate targets, or redirect the missile to any Global Positioning System (GPS) target coordinates. It also will be able to loiter over a target area for some hours, and with its on-board TV camera, will allow the war fighting commanders to assess battle damage of the target, and, if necessary redirect the missile to any other target. Launched from the Navy's forward-deployed ships and submarines, Tacti

A military vehicle carries DF-21D missile past a display screen featuring an image of the Great Wall of China at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on September 3, 2015, after a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II. China kicked off a huge military ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of Japan's defeat in World War II on September 3, as major Western leaders stayed away. China's unveiling of "carrier-killer" missiles and cuts in troop numbers underlined a shift towards naval strength amid growing Pacific rivalry with the US, analysts said. AFP PHOTO / GREG BAKER (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP)

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as they meet at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, in Panmunjom, South Korea, June 30, 2019. KCNA via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THIS IMAGE. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. SOUTH KOREA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SOUTH KOREA./File Photo

The nuclear-powered aircraft supercarrier USS George Washington is escorted into a navy port in Busan, South Korea, Wednesday, June 27, 2012. The U.S. carrier is in South Korea to join the ongoing South Korea and U.S. joint military drill. (AP Photo/Yonhap, Jo Jung-ho) KOREA OUT

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Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics
And Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out



Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics – and Shinzo Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out


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Quick Take | Is China the target of Japan’s record-busting defence budget?

Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics And Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out

Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics

And Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out