Rana Mitter

On Reflection | Kim Jong-un has America and China just where he wants them

Conventional wisdom on the Kim regime has been that it is unpredictable and downright crazy. But that has never really been true

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President Xi Jinping with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Beijing. Kim was treated to a lavish welcome by the Chinese president during a secretive trip to Beijing. Photo: AFP

Rana Mitter

Published: 11:33am, 14 Apr 2018Updated: 11:33am, 14 Apr 2018

At dinner in Washington last month with a small group of intense types concerned with Asia policy matters, I asked whether they were worried about the situation on the Korean peninsula. “We’re worried,” was the reply. In January, when a direct strike on North Korean nuclear facilities was on the table, one explained: “That’s the only thing people were talking about.”

Now the talk is about a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump – equally unthinkable just a few months ago, but more reassuring, and a sign of how North Korea’s diplomacy has always been more flexible than many have realised. “Little Rocket Man” Kim may be, but he’s a master of diplomatic ju-jitsu. Two years ago, neither Beijing nor Washington would pick up the phone to him. Now he gets his own armoured train ride to see President Xi Jinping, ahead of a meeting with the world’s most powerful man in May (maybe).

North Korea’s taekwondo team at the Pyongyang Grand Theatre. Photo: EPA

Yet anyone who’s observed North Korea’s behaviour over the years won’t be surprised by the turnaround. The conventional wisdom on the Kim regime was that it was unpredictable and downright crazy. But that hasn’t ever really been true. Ruthless, and utterly contemptuous of individual human rights, certainly. But the Kim family has always had its sights set on survival first and foremost. Right now, it has the two countries most able to give it what it wants just where it wants them.

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In 1950, Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, wanted to reunite the Korean peninsula, as he had control only of the northern part. Rather than undertake a risky solo venture, he played on his relationship with Stalin and Mao, effectively daring them to support him in a war.

Mao was hesitant. His Communist Party had won power in China only a few months earlier, and he was keener to regroup and consolidate his young regime at home. But Kim challenged Mao, with Stalin’s blessing, to show that he really was a leader of a new socialist world. With some trepidation, Mao provided “volunteers” (actually Chinese troops) to help Kim in his assault on the south. Even though they were eventually beaten back, Kim’s regime might not have survived without his Chinese helpers. The pattern was set for a relatively weak regime being able to pressure its ally into helping it to get what it wanted.