China Briefing | Opinion: Xi’s new era beckons, but China’s leadership reshuffle may not be as dramatic as expected

With a pivotal Communist Party congress just days away, the mystery is deepening as to China’s new leadership line-up, namely the composition of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee, to be unveiled at the end of the congress.

By comparison, in previous five-yearly leadership changes, predictions from overseas media and China observers often converged on one group of candidates and their new job titles weeks before the meetings, and they usually proved accurate. But this time, the speculation runs in different directions with multiple scenarios offered over who will rise and fall at the congress, which begins on Wednesday and is expected to last for a week or so.

Curiously, the confusion speaks to the power of President Xi Jinping, who is expected to emerge as an even stronger leader for another five-year term after the congress. Xi has already been described as China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping after he presided over an unprecedented anti-graft campaign which netted tens of thousands of corrupt officials, overhauled the People’s Liberation Army and tightened the party’s grip on all aspects of society over the past five years.

Now with his political thoughts, bearing his name, to be amended into the party constitution at the congress, Xi’s political status and influence will be elevated to that of Mao Zedong, who enjoyed sweeping power. By comparison, Deng Xiaoping Theory was included in the party constitution not until after his death in 1997. As a result of his ascendancy, Xi is assured a dominant say in the new leadership line-up – unlike predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, who had to do intense horse trading with various factions. This has given rise to excessive and sometimes unrealistic expectations on how far he is prepared to go to promote his allies and protégés to the top echelon of power. Many analysts expect him to do away with the age limit – one of the important informal rules to ensure smooth and peaceful power transitions – to retain Wang Qishan, Xi’s right-hand man tasked with overseeing the anti-graft campaign for another five-year term. Others expect him to ignore the seniority based hierarchy and allow one protégé to vault several rungs directly to the Politburo Standing Committee.