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Does ‘game-changer’ Delta signal game over for the Asia-Pacific’s zero-Covid approach?

  • The highly contagious variant is pushing the limits of lockdowns and border controls in the region, and fuelling doubt over bids to stamp out Covid-19
  • Political leaders and health experts in Australia and New Zealand have started shifting discussions to living with the virus, though Hong Kong is holding firm

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New South Wales has extended the current lockdown in Greater Sydney until the end of September. Photo: EPA
The Delta variant is fuelling doubt over the sustainability of the Asia-Pacific’s “zero-Covid” strategies, as growing Covid-19 outbreaks push the limits of elimination tools such as lockdowns and border closures.
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Political leaders and public health experts in zero-Covid economies such as Australia and New Zealand have in recent days begun shifting discussions towards learning to live with the virus once vaccination rates rise, although Hong Kong is maintaining its bid to stamp out Covid-19.

Disillusionment with elimination policies is growing in the trans-Tasman neighbours and Vietnam, which have implemented some of the strictest lockdowns yet to curb the spread of Delta – believed to be about twice as transmissible as the original strain that was first identified in Wuhan, China.

In Hong Kong, where cases are still effectively zero, there is widespread frustration at the lack of an exit strategy from some of the world’s strictest border and quarantine controls as authorities double down on a policy of isolation.

Peter Collignon, an infectious disease expert at Australian National University Medical School in Canberra, said the “game changed” after the emergence of Delta.

“Despite having very early lockdowns, it’s spreading. So realistically, I think zero Covid is not going to happen,” Collignon said of recent pandemic control measures in Australia and New Zealand. “And the other thing is, it was realistically never going to happen once we had high levels of vaccinations and less restrictions. It’s not looking like you can control Covid and get elimination even if you lock down with one person.”

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Frederik Gollob, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, said it was obvious societies would have to learn to live with Covid-19 sooner rather than later.

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