US-China trade war divides Southeast Asia, belt and road fears unite it: survey

The region’s economy is a cause of optimism for most experts, a survey has found, even if there’s little confidence in trade deals such as the CPTPP

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Southeast Asian countries are split over the impact the US-China trade war will have on them. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00am, 9 Jan 2019Updated: 8:30pm, 11 Jan 2019

Most Southeast Asian experts are upbeat about the direction of the region’s economy, but many are wary of global trade agreements and divided on the consequences of the US-China trade war, a new survey has found.

A poll of more than 1,000 experts, analysts and business leaders found that more than 55 per cent believed Southeast Asia would experience moderate or strong growth in 2019. The first State of Southeast Asia: 2019 Report – by the Singapore-based Asean Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute – found only about 20 per cent of respondents anticipated an economic downturn, with the pessimism most pronounced in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

The authors of the report called the mostly positive outlook “somewhat surprising” given the disruption caused by the US-China rivalry.

Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a lead researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said the bullish forecast could be attributed in part to growing Asian trade driven by China.

“There has also been strong intra-Asean trade and investment under the evolving Asean Economic Community. This creates optimism. Strong tourism in the Asean region is another big plus to most Southeast Asian economies,” Termsak said on Tuesday, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.