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China-India relations
This Week in AsiaGeopolitics

In Maldives, India’s Modi sees the glint of a Chinese pearl

  • The fall of Abdulla Yameen, the Maldivian strongman president seen as Beijing’s man in Male, gives India a chance to regain influence
  • India’s prime minister made his first visit to the nation last weekend

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with new Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in Male. Photo: AFP
Ajai Shukla
It was political change in the Maldives that prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make his first visit to the Indian Ocean archipelago last weekend.
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The Maldives was the only member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) that Modi had yet to set foot in after more than four years in power. New Delhi’s relations with Male had steadily deteriorated, as China cultivated ties with Abdulla Yameen, the strongman president who many believed was in Beijing’s pocket. Chinese firms poured money into infrastructure projects, including an US$830 million upgrade of the airport and a US$400 million bridge linking the airport with the capital. Simultaneously, the Maldives had squeezed out Indian firms and workers from the country. Then, in elections in September, Yameen lost to a consensus opposition candidate, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih – and for his inauguration, Modi finally decided to visit.

Why the Maldives matters

The Maldives remains an important component of New Delhi’s plan to preserve its influence in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy oversees the waters between Qatar – the forward headquarters of the United States Central Command (Centcom) – and the Strait of Malacca, beyond which lies the hotly contested and militarised South China Sea. Each year, more than 100,000 ships carrying oil, minerals and manufactured goods travel the international shipping lanes running through the northern Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy has dominated these waters, thanks to two Indian archipelagos: the Lakshadweep Islands to the west and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the eastern Indian Ocean.

However, a Chinese base in the Maldives, not far from Lakshadweep, would enable a countervailing Chinese naval presence. New Delhi worries that Beijing – having obtained naval basing rights in Djibouti, in East Africa, while also building a port at Gwadar in Pakistan – is also flexing its financial and commercial muscle to create bases in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. These bases would be China’s vaunted “string of pearls” – a potential maritime chokehold on India.

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