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Taiwan
This Week in AsiaGeopolitics

Strait talk: are China and Taiwan on the brink of conflict?

Between mainland calls for reunification and military displays on the island, tensions are at a new high. But for these two, there’s a reason why stalemate never gets stale

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Taiwanese soldiers stand guard in front of US-made Apache attack helicopters on Wednesday. Photo: EPA
Rana Mitter
When Taiwan proudly displayed its second tranche of US-made Apache attack helicopters, its leader Tsai Ing-wen sent a clear a message to Beijing when she called the assertive display “an important milestone” in the island’s defences.
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The message struck a tone in stark contrast to the atmospherics around a high-profile meeting in Beijing just days before between the representatives of two organisations which spent much of the last century at each other’s throats: the Communist Party and the Kuomintang.

Lien Chan, former vice-chair of the Kuomintang on Taiwan is no stranger to the Chinese capital. But his invitation to talk to President Xi Jinping hinted at the mainland cooling down the temperature over an issue that has been the subject of frequent hawkish comment in Chinese circles in recent months: the “resolution” of the Taiwan question of unification, whether consensually or otherwise.
Tsai Ing-wen, standing in jeep, during the commissioning ceremony for the Apache attack helicopter squadron. Photo: AP
Tsai Ing-wen, standing in jeep, during the commissioning ceremony for the Apache attack helicopter squadron. Photo: AP

Noises about the urgency of reunifying Taiwan have been catching the ears of China analysts around the world. In recent discussions in China and in the West, I’ve heard a growing sense from Chinese observers and policymakers that the reunification can’t be avoided forever.

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One senior academic pointed out that a military solution was always possible, while a well-informed journalist, with some mordancy, suggested the issue might be resolved in Xi’s “third term” (strictly speaking, the president hasn’t actually asked for an extra term, just changed the constitution so that he could have one).

Are the US and China headed for war over Taiwan?

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