China’s Arctic ambitions are now at a tipping point, enmeshed with the politics of the Baltics and the wider tussle between Russia and Nato.
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In January, China issued an Arctic policy white paper that proposes a Polar Silk Road, but key to the plan is more Russian support. In return, Russia expects to secure tacit consent from China if it moves against one or more of the three Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. All three are defended by Nato, with British, Canadian and other troops on the ground already.
The Polar Silk Road is a smaller addition to what was previously called the New Silk Road, which in turn was renamed One Belt One Road in 2013, which again was rebranded as the Belt and Road Initiative last year. We should be forgiven if we are confused by all these roads: the Belt and Road is actually six routes across central Asia and South Asia and one maritime route from the South China Sea through the Indian Ocean ending at the Suez Canal.
The intention is a massive extension of Beijing’s influence, by means of Chinese infrastructure projects in countries along the routes, done at bargain prices in return for a share in the power or proceeds that the projects generate.
Sea ice breaks apart as the Finnish icebreaker MSV Nordica traverses the Northwest Passage through the Victoria Strait in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Since the first orbital images were taken in 1979, Arctic sea ice coverage has dropped by an average of about 34,000 sq miles each year. Photo: AP
Why is China adding the Arctic into the mix? The Arctic has 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 per cent of its undiscovered oil reserves. But “undiscovered” is the key word – no one really knows what is there. Access to resources is made more difficult by the size of the vast polar region and its remoteness. The area within the Arctic Circle is 20 million square kilometres, more than twice the size of China.
