How China can benefit from anti-Trump sentiment in Iran

China, Russia and the European Union stand to gain from mounting anti-Americanism and fears over the Iranian economy, a new poll suggests. While Iranians are unhappy at two presidents – America’s Donald Trump for his inclination to drop the three-year-old nuclear deal and their own leader Hassan Rouhani for mismanagement of the domestic economy – they largely back Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes, Maryland-based IranPoll found.

The poll is the first major study of public opinion to be released since anti-government protests in December and January. Those protests were largely a reaction to economic woes, widespread corruption and rising fuel and food prices. While Iranians blame these issues largely on Rouhani, they have also had their expectations dashed – most had thought life would improve when sanctions were lifted after the nuclear deal with Washington and other world powers was signed in 2015.

But with these hopes fading – along possibly with the deal itself if Trump has his way – the poll shows the “economic roots of a new anti-Americanism” are setting in, according to Iran scholar Esfandyar Batmanghelidj. That is a blow in one of the few Middle Eastern countries where public perceptions of the United States (at least until the rise of Trump) had been largely positive. Tehran and Tel Aviv were the only two major Middle Eastern cities that reacted to the September 11 attacks in 2001 in New York and Washington with pro-American demonstrations.

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Batmanghelidj said anti-Americanism was increasing because the Trump administration was perceived to have failed to fulfil its obligations under the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated with Iran by the US, the European Union, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.

This meant Iranians felt the “very idea of diplomacy is being defeated”, said Batmanghelidj.

However, America’s loss could be a gain for the European Union, China and Russia depending on how they react. Technically, the nuclear deal would remain in place even if the US withdrew – creating opportunities for EU, Russian and Chinese companies to invest in Iran.

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However, those companies would have to be willing to brave reimposed US sanctions that could threaten non-US investors in Iran that also have interests in the US. That is likely only if the EU, Russia and China introduced the threat of their own counter-sanctions on US businesses and interests, something Iranian leaders are looking primarily to the EU for.