Why Thailand’s junta feels it needs a veneer of legitimacy

With dictatorships going out of fashion, military turns to ‘hybrid politics’ in effort to free its hands from costly coercion – and take a tighter grip on power

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Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha casts his ballot. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00am, 13 Aug 2016Updated: 10:31am, 14 Aug 2016

Military juntas with autocratic agendas do not promise elections to cede power. Instead, they fabricate an appearance of democratic change in order to avoid it. More specifically, by allowing civilian governments to come to the fore, they hope to legitimise their now indirect, but continuing, rule.

It is in this way Thailand’s recent referendum, and the new draft constitution it endorsed, must be seen. Sure, citizens were free to vote in this referendum. But no one was permitted openly to criticise the constitution’s provisions, on pain of 10 years in prison. And in stark partisan contrast, the military sent teams of campaigners out over the countryside to pressure and cajole doubtful villagers in support of the charter.

Similarly, with the motion passed and the constitution in place, citizens will be free to vote in a parliamentary election, probably late next year. But no party will be able to gain an outright majority. Through various mechanisms, parties will be capped in the number of seats they can win, herding them into conflicted coalitions and self-limiting governments. And just in case a government still shows worrisome signs of coherence and purpose, its policy choices can be overturned by the Senate that the military will fully appoint. For added protection, the Senate will also join the lower house in selecting the country’s prime minister. And should even those measures fail, the charter offers a nuclear option, legally sanctioning the military’s ousting a government with which it loses patience.

In creating the appearance but not the substance of democratic change, the militaryis aligning its regime with a mode that has grown common around the world. It is often called ‘hybrid’ politics, and under it elections are heavily manipulated, yet still exude a whiff of competitiveness. Usually a single political party then dominates, as in Singapore, Malaysia, and Cambodia, regularly besting the opposition and ruling directly. But in Thailand, the military prevails. And with safeguards now installed, the military will stand back, content to let the election play out. It knows that any new government that emerges will be a fractious coalition, fronting for the military’s indirect but continuing rule.

A Thai policeman keeps guard at a referendum polling station. Photo: EPA