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India-China trade just keeps growing – even if New Delhi would really rather it didn’t

  • China reclaiming the No 1 spot as India’s top trading partner last year was an ‘aberration’, according to Indian analysts
  • India’s increasing economic engagement with the West underlines its intent to prevent a recurrence, they say

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Indians in Kolkata protest against Chinese goods in 2020 amid a flare-up in border tensions between the two countries. Photo: AFP
India is seeking to diversify and reduce its reliance on imports from China as bilateral trade remains strong despite their ongoing diplomatic tensions, analysts say.
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According to data from the Global Trade Research Initiative economic think tank released earlier this month, China was India’s largest trading partner in the 2023-24 financial year, with two-way import and export volumes slightly exceeding the South Asian country’s trade with the United States.

India’s bilateral trade with China totalled US$118.4 billion over that period, with imports rising by 3.24 per cent to US$101.7 billion and exports increasing by 8.7 per cent to US$16.67 billion.

Trade between India and the US, by comparison, totalled US$118.3 billion in 2023-24.

Relations between India and China have been strained, most notably by their simmering border dispute that has led to violent clashes, including one in 2020 that killed at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers.
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Meanwhile, India has strengthened ties with the US and its allies to contain China’s growing influence, particularly via the four-member Quad grouping that also includes Australia, Japan and the US.
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