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Thailand
This Week in AsiaPolitics

Thailand likely to deploy Chinese submarine engines to avoid showing Beijing ‘signs of weakness’, analysts say

  • Analysts expect Thailand to proceed with the Chinese engines when it completes evaluation by September 15
  • Deal will further strengthen Sino-Thai relations, following joint military drills on Sunday

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A military model of S-26T submarine. Photo: Handout
Jitsiree Thongnoi
A strengthening of ties between Thailand and its largest trading partner China could be a “fait accompli” if it opted to use Chinese-made diesel engines for the S26T Yuan-class submarine it is buying as part of a 2017 deal, analysts said.
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Thailand is currently running tests on the mainland-made CHD620 engines as a replacement for Germany’s MTU396 model, and expects to complete this evaluation by September 15. Analysts expect Thailand to proceed with the Chinese engine if it matches the capabilities of German equipment.
“The Thai submarine deal is very important to China as it helps strengthen Sino-Thai military relations. For that reason alone it’s hard to believe that Beijing would offer a suboptimal engine to Bangkok,” said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Brian Wong, a geopolitics consultant and founder of the Oxford Political Review, said that “one way or another, closer ties with China appear to be a fait accompli” for Thailand to proceed with the deal.

The “optics” of Thailand caving to public criticism and backing out of the US$1.05 billion deal would not sit well with senior officials in Beijing who are likely to see it as “signs of weakness in their designated subordinates”, Wong added, referring to junior mainland diplomats who may have been assigned to liaise with Bangkok on the matter.

Thailand said last week that it is open to buying the Chinese-made diesel engines, after manufacturer China Shipbuilding & Offshore International failed to obtain German equipment as specified in the 13.5 billion-baht (US$379 million) contract signed in 2017.

“The contract specified that in cases of failure to source certain machine parts, better parts or ones of similar efficiency could be installed instead,” said Thai navy spokesman Pokkrong Monthatphalin. The expected delivery of the first submarine is in 2024.

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