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Macroscope

A week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ended on Friday with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship. Photo: AFP

China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

Week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ends with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship.

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Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

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Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

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Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

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(From front left) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting during the 15th Brics Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24, 2023. This year’s Brics summit will be the first since the grouping welcomed four new members. Photo: EPA-EFE

Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

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Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

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Shoppers on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai on October 2. While the stimulus measures announced by the government have lifted market sentiment, there is scepticism about whether they will translate to the real economy. Photographer: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, speaks during a news conference in the Berlaymont building of the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, on September 9. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event at Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, on September 18. Photo: AP

Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

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A worker handles ABC Bullion 1kg gold bars at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, Australia. The price of the precious metal has surged to a record US$2,500 for a single ounce in recent weeks. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

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A construction worker climbs to the second story of a house under construction in a new development in Brambleton, Virginia, on August 14. US consumer inflation eased slightly in July, according to US Labour Department data, its smallest 12-month increase since March 2021 and a positive sign for the Federal Reserve as it weighs cutting interest rates. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

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US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

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Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

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US Vice-President Kamala Harris outlines her economic plan in a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on August 16. Photo: EPA-EFE

Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

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Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

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Macroscope | Japan’s stock shock signals the return of volatility – and fear

Markets are beginning to reflect and respond to a fast-growing sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the wider world.

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People look at the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 6. After suffering its worst day in percentage terms since 1987 on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 notched one of its best days and rose more than 10 per cent on Tuesday, recovering most of the ground lost. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Never mind Japan – US is biggest source of global market volatility

The US is not the only source of volatility in the global economy, but the size of its economy and capital markets make it the most worrying.

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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange ahead of the closing bell in New York on August 5. Investors have become more sensitive to the risk of a sharper slowdown in the US economy. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | The great stock market reset is on its way

The coming stock shakeout will force the realisation that savings are being directed into areas of fleeting gain rather than at real need.

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Macroscope | Second Trump presidency would pose little threat to King Dollar

While Donald Trump returning as president poses political risks, the US dollar is more insulated against his policies than many might think.

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Macroscope | China’s uneven recovery risks more US protectionism, even if Trump loses

China’s trade surplus and deflationary policies propping up its push for hi-tech manufacturing mean a sharp US response is likely, whoever wins the November election.

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An employee works in a specially lit area on a production line that produces printed circuit boards for export at a factory in Jiujiang, in central Jiangxi province, on July 24. The recently completed third plenum showed that the Chinese government continues to see high-end manufacturing and “new quality productive forces” as the path to economic recovery. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why do investors refuse to take threat of second Trump term seriously?

While investors appear sure of a Trump victory, they have yet to come to terms with the far-reaching consequences of Trump’s re-election.

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Republican presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump departs on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Political chaos in the West could force the rest to seek new leadership

Recent UK and French election results and US turmoil are creating an impression of political and societal instability.

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Macroscope | Has Starmer’s Britain become a safe haven? Think again

The political chaos and the sway of populist politicians in the US and France are no reason to overlook the many problems facing Britain.

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Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
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