China may be spending far less on AI research than previously thought, US think tank says

The Chinese government is probably not dramatically outspending the US government on AI research and development, a recent report suggests

Reading Time:3 minutes

A staff member demonstrates 5G-based remote control of a robot during the 2019 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 7:45am, 4 Dec 2019Updated: 9:07am, 4 Dec 2019

When China laid out plans to become the global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030, the world took notice. While Beijing itself has never given a clear figure on the scope of its total AI investment, many assumed that the world’s second-largest economy would back its national AI plan with the necessary resources.

In 2017, the year China published its “Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan”, the country accounted for 48 per cent of total equity funding for AI start-ups compared to 38 per cent funded by the US and 13 per cent by the rest of the world.

Yet, recent estimates by a US think tank suggest that reports of China’s expenditure on AI may be overblown, and that it has probably not been dramatically outspending the US government on AI research and development (R&D) since it unveiled the national plan.

Researchers at the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), a think tank of Washington-based Georgetown University, assessed in an issue brief this month that China's public investment in AI R&D was in the order of a few billion US dollars in 2018, similar to the US’ planned spending for financial year 2020, and not the tens of billions previously suggested in some quarters.

If the lower estimate proves to be accurate, it would undercut some of the key assumptions underpinning calls by the US to step up investment in AI. In February, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the US government to prioritise AI in its research and development spending, months after he reportedly received a memo from then-Defence Secretary James Mattis that suggested the creation of a national strategy for AI to keep pace with China.

A report by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) also declared last month that China is investing more in AI than the US. Google’s former CEO Eric Schmidt, who led the government-commissioned panel, warned specifically that China was ahead in facial recognition and financial technology.