China to drive 5G smartphone adoption rate, expected to be 10 times that of 4G era, says researcher IDC

Although global smartphone growth is likely to remain subdued in coming years, consumers are expected to embrace the next-generation 5G network in its early stages, driving up the 5G share of the total market, according to a forecast by research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).

The researcher has raised its short-term 5G forecast due to recent developments in the China market and in anticipation of aggressive activity from the smartphone supply chain and outsourcing providers, said Ryan Reith, program vice-president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.

In 2020, the first year 5G phones will roll out on a large scale, a total of 190 million 5G-enabled smartphones are expected to be shipped, accounting for 14 per cent of total smartphones shipments for the year, according to an IDC note released on Tuesday, which also forecast a tepid 1.5 per cent year on year growth in global smartphone shipments, the first positive growth in three years.

IDC noted that in 2010, the first year 4G was introduced, the new handsets only achieved 1.3 per cent market penetration, one tenth of the expected pick up for 5G.

While South Korea, the US, Australia and the UK launched initial commercial 5G services in the second quarter, Chinese carriers have pinned their hopes on mass adoption of 5G services amid a government push behind the new technology, which promises lightning fast wireless connections, reduced latency and massive data capacity.

Major smartphone vendors in China all started introducing 5G handsets before the 5G network’s official launch in November, targeting consumers hungry for the faster download speeds, whose peak rates could be up to 100 times faster than what current 4G networks provide.