Outside In | Can law of unintended consequences temper Trump and his team?

From trade to immigration, Trump’s agenda risks a backlash. The question is whether he sees the problem and will change tack

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US President Donald Trump signs executive orders on January 6. Photo: AFP

Published: 4:30pm, 31 Jan 2025Updated: 6:30pm, 31 Jan 2025

Behold the law of unintended consequences, the reward for those who see no further than their nose – or, in Donald Trump’s case, no further than the baying demands of those who swept him into office.

In less than two weeks, we have witnessed from the US president a veritable blitzkrieg of statements, proclamations and memorandums intended to impress his fans, and shock and awe adversaries at home and overseas.

But the illegality (revocation of birthright citizenship enshrined in the constitution), illegitimate extension of presidential powers (the freezing of welfare payments) and mobster temerity (threats to buy Greenland and take over Panama and Canada) have forced memorandums to be withdrawn and triggered unanticipated levels of protest and resistance.

Actions promised for the first day of office, such as additional tariffs on China and an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, have failed to materialise – not because they have been abandoned, but because of a practical realisation that certain initiatives require foundations to be built first, or that the world is a more complicated place than the campaign trail admits.

As Trump’s team moves forward, one has to pray the law of unintended consequences will sober up a large part of the agenda. Trump probably hopes many of his faithful do not notice.

While populist leaders and hothead idealists have persisted for centuries in believing there are quick and easy solutions, the reality check of unintended consequences has persistently brought them back to earth.