Opinion | On China, Germany offers Britain both a blueprint and a cautionary tale

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, navigating the domestic minefield of his early days in office, now faces his first defining test on the global stage in 2025 – a test that could determine not only the trajectory of his government but Britain’s role in a changing world.

Given the UK’s stagnant economy and post-Brexit identity crisis, and the increasingly precarious global order, Starmer’s foreign policy will be defined by a cold, pragmatic pivot towards Beijing. This is not an ideological choice but an economic imperative. Acutely aware of Britain’s diminished leverage, Starmer knows that prosperity must come before principles if he is to deliver even a semblance of recovery.

The gamble? That engagement with China’s economic juggernaut can offer a lifeline to Britain’s beleaguered economy without compromising its democratic values. The risk? That Britain’s sovereignty, alliances and moral standing could be the collateral damage.

To grasp Starmer’s pivot, one must confront Britain’s bleak post-Brexit landscape. Promised by political charlatans as liberation from Brussels’ bureaucratic chains, Brexit has instead ushered in an era of diminished prospects.

UK goods exports to the European Union were down 11 per cent in 2023 compared to 2019 while small businesses, long the engine of British innovation, have been suffocated by regulatory uncertainty. Economic growth remains sluggish – a dismal 1.5 per cent forecast for 2025 by the International Monetary Fund – and the cost-of-living crisis continues to hollow out household incomes.

Populists and opportunists such as Nigel Farage are exploiting this disillusionment, with his Reform UK party gaining traction by offering the same false promises that led to this precipice while poisoning the well of social cohesion.