Outside In | Trump’s destructive impact on world trade could take decades to unravel

This was one of my singular recollections as I mused over the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office next month while rereading articles I wrote back in 2016 on the global trade and economic implications of a Trump presidency.

Trump’s messages are wholly unchanged: bring manufacturing back to the United States, reduce the trade deficit, cut China down to size and earn revenue from tariffs. In so far as these ambitions failed to bear fruit during his first administration, he has simply repeated them this time, just louder.

Rather than recognise that this menu of priorities was unachievable or would inflict more harm than good on the US economy if they were to be achieved, he has doubled down.

Instead of imposing 10-25 per cent tariffs on a small proportion of imports, he proposed during his campaign to impose tariffs of 10-20 per cent on all imported goods and 60 per cent on imports from China. In late November, he threatened tariffs of 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada – among the US’ closest allies and biggest trade partners – if they fail to clamp down on undocumented migrants and fentanyl.

Blaming the failures of his first administration on everyone but himself, he has doubled down on the imperative of a loyal and compliant team and used a megaphone to warn trading partners across the world that they fail to comply at their peril. A flurry of announcements within days of the US election result has been astoundingly successful in sucking oxygen from any other issue.