Opinion | Trump may end the Ukraine war but no one is walking away a winner

As the war in Ukraine, in its third year, rages on, it becomes increasingly clear there will be no true winner. The push for an end to this conflict has gained renewed momentum, particularly with Donald Trump’s re-election as US president and his promise to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated a willingness to engage in talks. But while ending the war is necessary to halt the bloodshed and civilian suffering, no party will emerge as a definitive victor.

Trump’s anticipated diplomacy, if successful, could yield benefits for all sides. In what will probably be labelled a historic peace deal, Trump could frame the cessation of hostilities as an achievement that saved lives and brought stability. For Russia, negotiations that result in Ukraine’s neutrality and the acknowledgement of annexed territories as Russian victories would fulfil some of Moscow’s objectives.

From Russia’s perspective, while territorial gains and a neutral Ukraine would mark tangible achievements, the war has been far from the resounding success initially envisioned. Putin’s aspirations for regime change in Kyiv and to install a pro-Russian government have not materialised.

The prospect of re-establishing amicable relations with Ukraine is remote, as years of war and aggression have built an almost insurmountable wall of resentment. Even if the conflict concludes, Russia’s exclusion from the European political space will persist. Reintegration into the Group of 7 or the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed by the West remains unlikely any time soon, leaving Russia economically isolated.