David Dodwell

Outside In | Does Trump’s election signal a crisis of legitimacy for democracy?

If the US is a bellwether for what is to become of democratic governance worldwide, then grounds for alarm are well founded

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A family watches election results at the 2024 Arizona Democratic Party Election Night Watch Party in Phoenix, Arizona, on November 5. Photo: EPA-EFE

David Dodwell

Published: 9:30am, 9 Nov 2024

With over 70 countries holding elections this year, and about 4 billion people eligible to vote, 2024 has in many ways been an audit of democracy worldwide, and the ferocious contests in the US this week are an unsavoury bellwether that is of critical importance globally.

Across the world, institutions that monitor democracy have been wringing their hands over the erosion of trust in democratic institutions. As Joe Mathews, a fellow of the Berggruen Institute’s Future of Democracy project, noted at the start of the year: “After seeing all the ugliness of electoral democracy, [people] may start wondering if there is a better way.”

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, only 8 per cent of the world’s population live in “full” democracies, with 45 per cent living in democracies of some sort. Another 39 per cent live under what the index defines as authoritarian rule.

In its Global State of Democracy 2024 report, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance said democratic performance deteriorated in about half of the 173 countries it analyses, with roughly a third showing improvement. It said the credibility of elections deteriorated in a fifth of the countries.

Voter turnout has fallen steadily from a global average of 65 per cent to 55 per cent over 15 years. Protests and riots against electoral outcomes have soared. Between mid-2020 and mid-2024, around 20 per cent of contestants challenged the election outcome and opposition parties boycotted 10 per cent of elections.

In January, Staffan Lindberg at Sweden’s Varieties of Democracy Institute said that 2024 may be a “make-or-break year” for democracy, given that “so many have empowered leaders or parties with anti-democratic leanings”.