Mohamad Zreik

Opinion | 3 ways to de-escalate the Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Historical precedent suggests that external mediation, by neutral entities like the UN, could create room for a peace settlement

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Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on October 19. Photo: AP

Mohamad Zreik

Published: 8:30pm, 21 Oct 2024

As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, having spilled over from the fighting between Israel and Hamas since October last year, the stakes have never been higher. The escalating trajectory of the conflict, especially Israel’s recent invasion of southern Lebanon, poses profound risks – not only to the two primary adversaries but also to regional and global stability. Both sides, locked in a cycle of retaliation, face diminishing returns from protracted war.

The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is deeply rooted in historical grievance, territorial disputes and regional power dynamics. Hezbollah, a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon, has long viewed itself as the vanguard of resistance against Israeli actions.

Israel, on the other hand, sees Hezbollah as a direct threat to its northern border, backed by regional adversaries like Iran. Both actors, while powerful within their spheres, are engaged in a conflict that has severely destabilised Lebanon and parts of Israel.

Since October 2023, attacks have intensified, with the two sides exchanging artillery, missile and air strikes. Lebanon has suffered significant casualties, and over a million Lebanese civilians have been displaced. Israel, too, has seen thousands displaced, with frequent cross-border attacks disrupting life in the north.

Neither side stands to gain from a full-scale, prolonged war. Lebanon, already suffering severe economic, political and social crises, is ill-equipped to bear the brunt of further conflict. Its infrastructure is crumbling under the weight of ongoing Israeli air strikes; Hezbollah’s fortified positions in the south have brought devastation to Lebanese civilian areas.

For Israel, the cost is similarly steep. The displacement of its northern residents and damage to its northern towns, coupled with the risk of opening a northern front while simultaneously engaged in Gaza, puts enormous strain on its military and resources.