Richard Heydarian

Opinion | Why the Quad faces an uncertain future

The grouping’s members are pulling in different directions, and a second term for Donald Trump might upend America’s values-based global strategy

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Richard Heydarian

Published: 8:30pm, 29 Sep 2024Updated: 9:59pm, 29 Sep 2024

“China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region, and it’s true in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia and the Taiwan [Strait],” outgoing US President Joe Biden was recorded on a hot mic telling Quad leaders during a farewell summit in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.

His guests from Japan, Australia and India, however, were careful not to portray the gathering as a China-bashing forum but instead as a constructive avenue for global cooperation.

In their joint statement, Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida underscored their “shared values”, and commitment to “the international order based on the rule of law” and “a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient”.

The statement did not directly single out China. Instead, the Quad leaders announced initiatives in public health, cutting-edge and critical technologies, quality infrastructure and, crucially, maritime security. Next year, the four powers plan to hold their first joint maritime patrol mission in a clear show of force and shared purpose.

However, the seemingly powerful grouping faces uncertainties and potentially turbulent waters ahead. A second Donald Trump presidency could upend the US’ global strategy, and jeopardise relations with key allies.

Meanwhile, an ascendant India is likely to seek greater strategic autonomy. If anything, US-led minilateral initiatives involving treaty allies such as Britain, South Korea and the Philippines could prove more reliable than an unabashedly multi-aligned India.