Opinion | Conflict or cooperation – how will US election affect China relations?

As the US presidential election approaches, the world is watching with keen interest, knowing that the outcome will significantly shape US-China relations for years to come. This pivotal bilateral relationship, one of the most consequential of the 21st century, stands at a critical juncture. After decades of engagement and interdependence, recent years have witnessed a dramatic shift towards competition and heightened tensions.

Both Republican and Democratic administrations have come to view China’s growth as a threat to vital US interests. Conversely, China perceives US actions as attempts to stifle its development and deny it a place on the world stage.

The contrasting visions of the two leading candidates – former US president and Republican nominee Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee – present somewhat divergent paths forward. Each has profound implications not only for the two countries involved but for the entire global order.

Trump has signalled an intention to double down on his confrontational approach to China. His proposed policies include imposing sweeping tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese imports, a move that economists warn could have severe consequences for both US consumers and the global economy.

Trump’s transactional view of international relations, evident in his comments suggesting that Taiwan should pay for US protection, indicates a potential shift in the delicate balance of cross-strait relations. This approach risks further destabilising an already-precarious relationship and could lead to escalations.