Nikola Mikovic

Opinion | How Belarus is seeking to balance Russia ties with stronger China relations

Alexander Lukashenko believes he can maintain strong relations with both China and Russia without having to reduce cooperation with either

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang (left) meets Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at the Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus, on August 22. Belarus has stepped up its engagement with China in recent years as it tries to lessen its dependence on neighbouring Russia. Photo: Xinhua

Nikola Mikovic

Published: 5:30am, 30 Aug 2024Updated: 6:57am, 30 Aug 2024

Belarus, one of Russia’s few allies in Europe, seeks to strengthen its economic, political and military ties with China. Isolated from the West and heavily dependent on Beijing, Moscow is in no position to prevent a potential Chinese encroachment into the Kremlin’s zone of influence. But does China really have significant geopolitical ambitions in Belarus?

In 2016, while Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko still had relatively good relations with the West, Minsk and Beijing established a comprehensive strategic partnership. In 2017, the Belarusian government offered 22 state-owned enterprises for privatisation exclusively to Chinese businesses, but none have attracted any interest.

That year, the volume of Chinese investment in Belarus was comparatively small. However, by 2019, China was among top three international lenders for Belarus, although Beijing’s economic presence in the former Soviet republic remained relatively low.

A lack of structural reforms, as well as a Soviet-style economy, seemed to prevent greater influx of Chinese investment. However, that has not discouraged Lukashenko from seeking to strengthen economic relations with Beijing. Following the controversial presidential election in 2020, Lukashenko turned to China for loans, investment, and military and political support.

As a result of Premier Li Qiang’s recent visit to Belarus, Beijing and Minsk agreed to expand security and economic relations. According to Li, Beijing stands ready to work with Belarus to “push for the high-level development of their all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership to better benefit the two peoples”.

The Chinese and Belarusian leaders also expressed support for “peaceful resolution of conflicts and constructive bilateral dialogue between countries”. Such rhetoric suggests they have the same approach regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.