Outside In | As world population shrinks, prepare for seismic changes

Browse through the latest UN World Population Prospects report and it is clear we are sliding at breakneck speed into an unrecognisable world. Shockingly, virtually no government is adequately preparing for it. And our region is set to be at the epicentre of change.

Over the past three years, as we obsessed over the global polycrisis that embraces climate change, pandemics and global health threats, technological change, recession and geopolitical conflict, the accelerating demographic revolution has attracted little attention. This latest UN report provides a sobering corrective.

Take China. A massive contraction in women’s willingness to have children is expected to radically slash its population – down 204 million by 2054 and 786 million by 2100 to just 633 million. Imagine how different China would be with less than half of today’s population.

It would still be the world’s second most populous country – after India with a projected 1.505 billion people in 2100, down from a peak of around 1.7 billion in the 2050s – but Pakistan (511 million) and Nigeria (477 million) with their fast-growing populations would be hard on its heels.

No wonder the world’s largest manufacturing economy is moving fast to replace manual labour with robots, automation and advanced technology.

A seismic contraction of China’s population would have massive global ramifications. It prompted the UN to revise its 2100 population forecast down by 700 million from a decade ago to just 10.2 billion, falling from a peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.