Opinion | Trump or Biden? Perhaps it shouldn’t matter so much

Not long before their respective nominations, the campaigns of both US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump have been dealt a blow. Biden’s debate performance earlier this month has led to weeks of heightened attention on him amid speculation Democrats will try to replace him, with the intrigue dominating headlines until the attempted assassination of Trump reset the news cycle.

So far, the consensus appears to be that this will at least buy Biden a few days of reprieve, potentially enough to short-circuit attempts to replace him. However, this comes at the cost of a general election campaign that already appears like an uphill struggle for Democrats.

The danger for the United States, even before this assassination attempt, is that its political future might look like South Korea’s, where ex-presidents have ended up in prison after their term ends. Trump is a convicted felon who has promised retribution for his political opponent. In the aftermath of the shooting, the potential for a much darker future has emerged.

Much of the national discourse has turned towards lowering the political temperature and taking a step back from calling the upcoming election a fight of good versus evil, a framing that could be seen as encouraging more violence. Given that it appears Democrats view the election of Trump as an existential threat, such a taboo would be to Trump’s advantage.

Despite all the attention paid to the rematch between Biden and Trump, there is much more to November’s election. The overall situation for Democrats actually isn’t as dire as it might appear. Many Democratic Senate and House candidates are running ahead of Biden.