Ian Bremmer

Opinion | Why the Democratic party is struggling to look beyond Biden

Ousting a sitting president seeking re-election may be a gamble but sticking with a stumbling incumbent may be even riskier

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US President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event in Madison, Wisconsin, on July 5. Amid calls to drop out, Biden has declared he is staying in the race. Photo: Bloomberg

Ian Bremmer

Published: 10:30pm, 7 Jul 2024

With the 2024 presidential election four months away, Democrats are facing a perfect political storm. US President Joe Biden’s startlingly unfocused debate performance against Donald Trump has left party officials, major donors and many of the Democrats’ likeliest voters calling for a change at the top of the ticket.

A few weeks ago, backing Biden was thought to be the Democrats’ best hope. After all, it’s not easy to beat an incumbent. Since 1932, only Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, the elder George Bush and Trump have failed to win re-election. Scenarios in which Biden would retire or face a credible primary challenge seemed needlessly dangerous.

When Democrats Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson chose not to seek re-election – in 1952 and 1968, respectively – the Republicans Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon rode to victory. Similarly, a Democratic primary challenge from Edward Kennedy in 1980 helped cripple Carter’s re-election campaign, ultimately sending Ronald Reagan to the White House.

With this history in mind, most Democrats thought it safer to stick with Biden, a man who has already beaten Trump once. No Democrat who aspires to be president someday wants to be the one to hobble an already vulnerable incumbent.

But growing worries about Biden’s age – he is 81 now and would be 86 at the end of a second term – have become the central issue of the campaign, even as Trump may face sentencing for a felony conviction in New York. Following Biden’s debate debacle, the editorial board of The New York Times, the centre-left establishment paper of record, urged the president to drop out, and recent polls signal that about half of Democratic Party voters agree.

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Unless Biden decides to leave the race, however, the odds of replacing him are virtually zero. During his sweep through the primary election season, he secured the support of the delegates he needs to be nominated at the party’s convention in Chicago in August. These delegates are pledged to back Biden unless he releases them.