Nikola Mikovic

Opinion | Has China gained the upper hand over Russia in Kazakhstan?

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Astana offered a glimpse of the jockeying for geopolitical influence in Central Asia

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Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 4. Photo: Reuters/Sputnik

Nikola Mikovic

Published: 8:30pm, 9 Jul 2024

Isolated by the West over its actions in Ukraine, Russia seeks to retain Central Asia in its geopolitical orbit. But growing Chinese influence in the strategically important region threatens to end the era of Russian dominance in significant parts of Central Asia.

Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, has close ties with both Moscow and Beijing. Despite being Russia’s ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and a member of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, Astana has increased economic cooperation with China. Last year, China overtook Russia to become Kazakhstan’s biggest trading partner, with two-way trade hitting US$41 billion.

It is, therefore, no surprise that Chinese President Xi Jinping was given a warmer welcome this year at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana than any other leader of the multilateral group, founded in 2001. Unlike Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of other SCO members – Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – Xi was welcomed at the airport in Astana by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. All the other leaders were met by Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov.

Also, before Xi’s visit to the Central Asian nation, Chinese flags and announcements of his visit appeared on the streets of Astana. These symbolic gestures indicate that Kazakhstan sees China as a de facto leader of the group, and that it seeks to strengthen economic relations with Beijing.

Officially, Xi came to Kazakhstan for a state visit, while other SCO leaders only came to participate in the summit. But as Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilienko told me in an interview, out of 10,000 people who came to Astana for the forum, more than half were Chinese, which suggests that the event in the Kazakh capital had huge importance for Beijing.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping upon his arrival in Astana on July 2. Photo: AFP/Handout

For Putin, on the other hand, the SCO summit was an opportunity to show his audience in Russia that Moscow might be isolated from the West, but not from the rest of the world. He met Xi for the second time in two months, as well as his “dear friend” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who came to the summit as a dialogue partner of the SCO.