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A mainland Chinese soldier directs a rocket launcher during a military drill in Fujian province, China, on May 23 amid tensions over Taiwan. Photo: AFP/PLA
Fears about World War III emerging have long captivated the dark, conspiracy theorist corners of cyberspace but have rarely entered the realm of official foreign policy communication. However, in recent months there has been an uptick in officials voicing concerns about the potential for World War III. Just last week, New Zealand’s foreign minister Winston Peters said, “We’re going through the pre-second world war experience, utterly unprepared, way out of time – disastrous”.
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Part of the impetus for this growing fear of World War III erupting has been Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been using the threat of a global conflict as a rhetorical inflection point for some time to garner more support from the West for Ukraine’s fight against Russian expansionism. This has been abetted by the blossoming Sino-Russian partnership and Russia’s recent mutual defence agreement with North Korea, both of which illustrate the expanding divide that is emerging internationally.

However, the question as to whether these developments signal that we are on a path to World War III is difficult to answer, and the Manichean arguments put forth by officials so far do the complexity of the issue a disservice. Using history as an analytical framework to assess current issues is popular but also fraught with limitations. No two periods are exactly alike. The cases of World War I and World War II offer limited value when examining the current global crisis.

World War I, for example, showed the danger of rampant popular nationalism. While the leaders of the central powers have been much criticised, in reality, all parties involved were heavily constrained by the growing nationalistic fervour in their countries that made rapprochement politically untenable. In an exchange between Kaiser Wilhelm II and Tsar Nicholas II in the days before their countries declared war on each other, both leaders expressed a desire for peace but by the end of the exchange the kaiser stated that he had “gone to the utmost limits of the possible in [his] efforts to save peace”.

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said nations were caught in a “doomsday machine” at the onset of World War I, referring to the network of interlocking alliances and military mobilisation timetables.

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World War II showed the danger of expansionist powers – in this case, Nazi Germany and imperial Japan – driven by messianic ideologies built on the back of racism. Both Nazi Germany and imperial Japan saw expansion as their divine right and they used this to justify the truly horrific means they employed in attempting to fulfil their perceived national destinies.
Protesters hold portraits of “comfort women” – women forced into sexual slavery by the imperial Japanese army during World War II – and their testimonies, in Seoul, South Korea, on August 14, 2022. Photo: Xinhua
Protesters hold portraits of “comfort women” – women forced into sexual slavery by the imperial Japanese army during World War II – and their testimonies, in Seoul, South Korea, on August 14, 2022. Photo: Xinhua
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