Abishur Prakash

Opinion | Kim-Putin deal may kick off a new and dangerous superpower competition

Could this be the start of more such alliances, carving the world into a zigzag of defence treaties forcing great powers to fight one another?

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Abishur Prakash

Published: 8:30pm, 27 Jun 2024Updated: 9:17pm, 27 Jun 2024

Is it checkmate? When the Kremlin announced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to North Korea, the West was sceptical about what would be accomplished. The “ceiling” on the visit appeared to be the continued flow of North Korean weapons to Russia. The possibility that Russia and North Korea would do more was pushed aside. Few people seemed to be connecting the dots.

Earlier, at the St Petersburg economic forum, Putin warned that Moscow could arm states (and groups) that could then attack the West. It was Russia’s retaliation, as the West had approved Ukraine striking targets in Russia using Western weapons. Then Putin flew to Pyongyang.

Old shackles on Russia-North Korea relations were broken. A new alliance was formed. At the core: a mutual defence deal pledging protection and support in the face of “aggression”. The details are sparse. But the idea that Russia could defend North Korea if hostilities break out or that North Korea could come to Russia’s defence in war is moving the tectonic plates of geopolitics.

It changes the calculations nations will make in Asia – and globally.

To start with, Russia seems to be taking a page out of America’s playbook. For months, the United States and Saudi Arabia have reportedly been quietly negotiating a deal that would integrate Washington and Riyadh on a new axis. Part of the deal would reportedly see the US sign a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, similar to what America has with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. It means if Saudi Arabia ever goes to war, America will defend it.

Russia has signed effectively the same deal with North Korea. A new kind of superpower competition may have begun, where the US and Russia are dangling their “ace card” in front of nations, pledging to defend them in wartime, to bring these countries into their corner. And there is little stopping others, like China, from introducing similar arrangements.