Lee Jersey Wang

Opinion | With fall of ANC, divisive politics darkens South Africa’s rainbow

General dissatisfaction has led to the emergence of parties split along ethnic lines such as Jacob Zuma’s Zulu-based MK and the minority-based Patriotic Alliance

The only major piece missing is a Xhosa nationalist party, which may yet emerge if the ANC neglects the interests of the second-largest ethnic group

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South Africans closely following the announcement of the election results in Johannesburg on June 2. Photo: AP

Lee Jersey Wang

Published: 5:30am, 6 Jun 2024Updated: 10:07am, 6 Jun 2024

Thirty years after apartheid, Nelson Mandela’s political heirs are in for a rude awakening. The African National Congress (ANC) he led won barely 40 per cent in South Africa’s general election, a veritable collapse in support after garnering just 57.5 per cent of votes in 2019, a record low then.

The ANC has mainly lost support among young people. An AtlasIntel poll just before the election showed the ANC had the support of over half of those surveyed who were over 60 years but just 27 per cent of those aged 16-24 (16-18 years old can register but not yet vote).

The younger generation “understandably didn’t go through the struggle era, so they don’t feel the loyalties to the ANC”, said ANC member of parliament Yunus Carrim.

The changing youth vote is a familiar headache for many political parties, including in the West. Ahead of Poland’s election last year, which unseated the Law and Justice (PiS) party after eight years, exit polls showed that while older voters supported establishment parties, young women increasingly favoured the far-left, while young men flirted with the far-right, even openly misogynistic parties.

The Israel-Hamas war has further radicalised young people, with elite college campuses in the United States erupting into confrontations between pro-Palestine and pro-Israel protesters. Ahead of the November presidential elections, Joe Biden is facing pressure to stop supporting Israel or face the wrath of young voters.

Opinion polls show that young people are broadly dissatisfied with Western institutions and society, and pushing for more radical changes.