Opinion | With 3 wars and Taiwan, global inflection points are looming

First, the Ukraine war. Following Russia’s resilience and reversal of Ukraine’s battleground gains, the early triumphalism of Nato, the transatlantic alliance, has given way to a sense of war-weariness, collective economic pain and a tussle between denial and despair. Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly exhausted and while motivation remains high, fighters and ammunition are in short supply.

According to David Sanger in his latest book, New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West, in a single year, Ukraine had consumed six production years worth of shoulder-fired missiles. The Biden administration has admitted that Russia’s Vladimir Putin could prevail in three ways: Ukraine running out of ammunition, America losing passion for the cause or a fractured European unity.

America’s newly passed US$95 billion foreign aid bill includes US$13.8 billion for Ukraine to buy weapons. Money, however, cannot readily translate into sufficient ammunition on the ground. As the war of attrition wears on, the Biden’s administration’s three scenarios are becoming increasingly likely.

Donald Trump has boasted that as US president, he could end the Ukraine war in one day, implying a forced settlement largely on Russia’s terms of “land for peace”. Various quarters within Nato are searching for an endgame, perhaps along the lines of the 1953 Korean armistice agreement.

If such a settlement comes to pass, the power dynamics in Europe would be redrawn. With the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads, Russia, albeit weakened, would have an outsize influence over Europe, particularly over bordering nations fearful of Putin’s revisionist expansion. Europe’s rearmament is already on the cards; leaders are cognisant of over-dependence on America’s defence umbrella.