Opinion | Chances are that Rishi Sunak will lose his summer UK election gamble

While the Conservatives should never be underestimated as a political force, the party is badly divided heading into the six-week election campaign. Try as he might, Sunak has been unable to change the UK’s political weather

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The private reaction of many Conservative MPs was bemusement at Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s election announcement in pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street on May 22, a picture that has drawn unfavourable commentary and cheeky headlines. Photo: TNS

Published: 3:30pm, 23 May 2024Updated: 4:44pm, 23 May 2024

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s political track record is one of a cautious, conservative leader. Yet on Wednesday he took an extraordinary gamble, calling a July 4 general election he is likely to lose, potentially very badly.

This will be the United Kingdom’s first July national election since 1945. That year was a very poor one for the Conservatives with wartime leader Winston Churchill losing by a landslide to Labour.

Recent polls indicate that the Labour Party, more than 20 percentage points ahead, will win a significant majority in the House of Commons. According to the most recent Electoral Calculus forecast, based on these opinion surveys, the probability of a Labour majority is 98 per cent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Labour being the largest party is 100 per cent.

This offers an outside possibility that Labour might win a majority comparable to 1945, or its last landslide year in 1997. To be sure, polls may tighten in the coming weeks, but the direction of travel appears clear towards Labour being the largest party again in the House of Commons.

However, Sunak – a former US green card holder – seems to believe July 4 (Independence Day in the United States) might be a lucky day that will allow him to defy the polls. His announcement on Wednesday is based on his belief that, bad as the political landscape looks now for the Conservatives, it could be even worse in the autumn.

First, UK inflation has fallen from double digits last year to 2.3 per cent, near the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, and the lowest level in around three years. Second, after a series of tax cuts in recent budgets, it is unlikely that the UK public purse can stretch any further in an autumn fiscal event.