Paul Yip,Tomas SobotkaandBai Yiming

Opinion | Expecting IVF to solve Hong Kong’s population problems is misguided

While IVF can be an important tool for infertile couples, it cannot take the place of broad social and financial support for hopeful parents

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A technician fertilises eggs in a lab during the process of in vitro fertilisation. Photo: TNS

Paul Yip,Tomas SobotkaandBai Yiming

Published: 9:30am, 23 Nov 2024

In the ongoing conversation about fertility and family planning, in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is often highlighted as a beacon of hope for the many couples grappling with infertility. The common argument is that it will help lift Hong Kong’s low fertility rate.

However, this is a false hope. The additional babies born because of widely accessible IVF comprise only a small percentage of the total births in countries such as Denmark, the Czech Republic and Israel.

The potential impact of IVF on the number of births is often overstated. IVF should not be seen as a readily available remedy for the challenges of a low fertility rate and declining and ageing populations. While it plays an essential role for many people aspiring to become parents, relying on IVF to boost birth rates is unrealistic.

IVF is a sophisticated medical procedure involving multiple stages – ovarian stimulation, egg retrieval, fertilisation and embryo transfer – and may require repeated cycles. This process offers a lifeline to those facing infertility, but success rates vary widely.

For women under 35 using their own eggs, the chance of a successful pregnancy is around 40 per cent per cycle. However, this chance shrinks significantly as women’s age increases, dropping to around 10 per cent for women over 40 and reaching close to zero by age 45. Men’s age also negatively affects IVF success rates, with the chances of successful pregnancy and delivery diminishing for couples where both partners are of higher reproductive ages.

The IVF success among women in their 40s can be dramatically improved when they use donor eggs from younger women or their own eggs frozen at a younger age. Even so, both options are fraught with practical and ethical issues and are costly and unrealistic for many couples.