Opinion | China’s ‘Food Silk Road’ holds key to thwarting Trump tariffs

As US president-elect Donald Trump threatens heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, China – the world’s largest food producer and importer – is struggling to secure its food supply. Grappling with volatile global markets, a crucial question arises: can China ensure food security given its growing reliance on food imports?

The answer lies in Beijing’s ambitious “Food Silk Road”. This ongoing strategy aims to diversify food and fertiliser imports through four aspects: overseas agricultural investment and acquisitions, infrastructure development, technology transfers and policy coordination. By diversifying import sources and strengthening strategic partnerships, it aims to safeguard China’s long-term food security by reducing the country’s vulnerability to risks such as trade disruptions.

Food security has long been a concern for the Chinese authorities. Amid changing geopolitical dynamics, climate change, trade disruptions and domestic challenges, China has prioritised food security and boosting local agricultural production.

Driven by the increasingly complex and fractured geopolitical environment, the strategy’s importance has soared in recent years. China has adopted a dual strategy for food security: maintaining self-sufficiency in staples (such as rice) and key protein (such as pork) through local production while relying on global markets for non-staples (such as soybeans).

Despite efforts to increase local output, significant issues including arable land and water constraints make it an uphill battle. Adding to concerns, China’s food self-sufficiency ratio has plummeted, from 93.6 per cent in 2000 to 65.8 per cent in 2020. In 2004, China moved from being a net exporter to a net importer and is expected to remain one.

Food import reliance has come at a steep price. Policymakers in Beijing remain concerned about supply chain vulnerabilities and the weaponisation of imported food supplies. Their worries are well-founded. During Trump’s first term, Washington imposed tariffs on US$370 billion worth of Chinese goods. Beijing’s retaliation of tariffs of up to 25 per cent on key agricultural exports from the United States such as soybeans further highlighted the risks of such dependency.