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My Take | Donald Trump’s tech war against China will prove self-defeating

Biden’s ‘small yard, high fence’ strategy may become ‘huge yard, tall fence’, prohibitively expensive to maintain and with diminishing returns

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A semiconductor-chip factory in Huaian, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province, in April 2024. Photo: AFP
Alex Loin Toronto
As US lawmakers launch a new propaganda war against Hong Kong being a hub for sanctions-busting and money-laundering, Jensen Huang, the boss of Nvidia, the world’s most important AI chipmaker, visited the city on a high-profile trip to receive an honorary PhD.
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At the same time, his head of global business operations met China’s top trade negotiator, Wang Shouwen, to discuss commercial opportunities ahead of an expected new round of US chip sanctions. The message they sent is clear, and it is not a patriotic one so long as Washington is concerned.

The return of Donald Trump is likely to intensify America’s tech war against China. But top tech firms such as the US-based Nvidia and foreign ones such as the Dutch chip equipment maker ASML are increasingly upset about losing their best customer, China.

As a new essay in Foreign Affairs points out, that’s a losing proposition for the United States when you trade prosperity and opportunity for economic security, assuming the latter is even achievable. “Washington has placed restrictions on US innovation that so far outweigh the good that has come from the investments,” Scott Kennedy writes in “How America’s War on Chinese Tech Backfired – And Why Trump’s Plans Would Make Things Even Worse”.

“Export controls have reduced business opportunities for American semiconductor firms; less revenue means less investment in R&D and less innovation. Specific restrictions, coupled with the chilling effect produced by increased geopolitical tensions, have reduced opportunities and income for US firms,” Kennedy writes.

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About 850 Chinese institutions and individuals are currently on a black list curbing access to American technologies by the US Commerce Department, which is about to add another 200 Chinese chip companies. Trump looks set to expand the trade and tech war being waged by outgoing President Joe Biden.

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