Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa

Opinion | How Trump’s isolationist US will open doors for China

A US pullback from Europe, Nato and Asia means less pressure and more room for China to attain its trade and security goals

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Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa

Published: 5:30am, 18 Nov 2024Updated: 7:46am, 18 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s second term as president will not just reshape US policy, it will fundamentally transform geopolitics. Embracing protectionism, isolationism and nationalism, he intends to freeze multilateralism and redirect American resources to domestic priorities. If his first term is any guide, the fallout will be predictable.

Protectionism will be the cornerstone of Trump’s strategy. With higher tariffs, sanctions and export controls, trade wars are inevitable. The US-China technological conflict will intensify and Europe will be caught in the crossfire. As Washington decouples further from Beijing, Brussels could bear the brunt, especially as China eyes the European Union as a key market to redirect its supply chains to.

Europe may be forced into a closer relationship with China, unable to antagonise both powers. The European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen will struggle to keep aligning with US policy, especially if Trump’s far-right allies gain influence in European capitals.

Trump’s isolationism is a defining feature of his foreign policy. He has made it clear: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” His promise to resolve the Ukraine war, combined with his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, risks sidelining Europe, forcing it to confront volatility alone.

Meanwhile, his support for Israel, exemplified by the US embassy’s move to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords, alongside his hardline stance on Iran, will shape the Middle East, affecting the Palestinian cause.

Nationalism drives Trump’s military and economic policies, putting America first at the expense of global alliances. By focusing resources domestically, he reduces the likelihood of conflict but risks sidelining regions like the Indo-Pacific.